Small Craft Advisory 138, NWS Anchorage, AK

731 
FZAK51 PAFC 210034
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AT 982 MB EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
BEFORE DISSIPATING WED MORNING. A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 991 MB TUE MORNING...THEN TRACK TO 
120 NM NORTHWEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE AT 995 MB TUE EVENING BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE NEAR KETCHIKAN.
$$

PKZ120-211500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF CAPE CLEARE...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
E OF CAPE CLEAR...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 40 KT NEAR CAPE HINCHINBROOK IN THE EVENING. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-211500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-211500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-211500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-211500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT
EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-211500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-211500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-211500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-211500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 20 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT BY LATE EVENING. GUSTS TO
25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
150 PM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER THE BERING SEA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE. A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON THE 21Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...POINTED DIRECTLY
AT THE PANHANDLE. ALSO EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BACK ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MAKING PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR BRISTOL BAY AND THE NORTHERN GULF.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND AND DRIFTING WEST TOWARD THE MAINLAND. A DEVELOPING
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM SOUTH OF OUR DOMAIN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. OUT WEST...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST
AS IT WEAKENS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS INITIALIZE WELL COMPARED TO THE 18Z AND 21Z SATELLITE
IMAGERY. VERY FEW CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE
VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE FIRST 60 HOURS WITH THE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS APPROXIMATELY 970
MB AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO 960 MB AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USHER MOST OF THE ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE MOISTURE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LOW OCCLUDES AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY TOMORROW MORNING
AS IT ENTERS THE GULF. KODIAK ISLAND WILL SEE ABUNDANT RAIN OUT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS WILL MOST OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SINCE MOST OF THE
ENERGY SHOOTS OFF TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA...ONLY LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE INTERIOR AND THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN
UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BECOMES VERY
WEAK ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS TO DROP UP COOK INLET AND LIGHT SNOW TO
FALL OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL HELP SUSTAIN A SURFACE LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH MID WEEK...ALSO
MAINTAINING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MANY AREAS.

SOUTHWEST...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS A
RESULT OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES INLAND AND THE DEVELOPING LOW
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN TAKES OVER. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE LATE TONIGHT...COUPLED
WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. AGAIN...THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR
DOMAIN SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...SO NO ADVISORIES OR
WARNING ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA EITHER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS...FOG...OR
FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS PATTERN OF INTERIOR SUN
AND COASTAL CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE BERING SEA REMAINS RELATIVELY TAME FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOW
WILL SKIRT THE ALASKA PENINSULA BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THAT
REGION...BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW BUT
COULD SEE BRIEF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLOWING SNOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THROUGH MID
WEEK...EXPECT THE WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TO DRIFT
EAST...BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS TO MUCH OF THE
BERING SEA. COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS LOW UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN BERING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM...120 130 138 140 352
         GALE...132 141 150 155 351
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB FEB 12