Small Craft Advisory 135, NWS Anchorage, AK

528 
FZAK51 PAFC 190146 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
445 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

UPDATED ZONE 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 MB LOW 50 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKENS TO 995 MB TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATES SUN. A 963 MB LOW 100 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAND POINT MOVES NEAR KODIAK CITY AT 970 MB MON
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
445 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT W AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE 
WATERS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

868 
FZAK51 PAFC 191217
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 994 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK CITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 963 MB LOW 280 NM 
SOUTH OF COLD BAY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO 140 NM EAST OF KODIAK
CITY MON AFTERNOON AT 969 MB THEN TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND LATE 
MON NIGHT AT 981 MB. 
$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER WINDS 
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT
SHIFTING TO S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING 
TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 20 KT
BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 19 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 INCREASING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 2 FT INCREASING TO 4 FT TOWARD MORNING. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THOUGH THE ECMWF HANDLES THE LOW COMPLEX
CURRENTLY IN THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THE BEST...IT IS
OVERALL THE OUTLIER IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST
OVERALL COMPROMISE IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.UPPER LEVELS...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC.
THE BROAD LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA ACTS AS THE FULCRUM FOR
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND NORTH PACIFIC. THE SHORT
WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS THE BERING SEA TO OVER THE NE PACIFIC MOVES
OVER THE MAINLAND AND SE ALASKA SUN NIGHT AND WEAKENS. WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC DEVELOP AS THEY
TRACK EAST. ONE SUCH WAVE BECOMES  A CLOSED CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE
AK PEN SUN NIGHT WHICH THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF MON AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY CENTER...THOUGH WEAKER...IS NOT FAR BEHIND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
SNOW OR MIX OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
CENTER WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND DIMINISH
AS WELL OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BERING SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS TO
THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL. THE AIR WILL LIKELY BE WARMER WITH THIS
ONE...SO THERE WILL BE GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTS.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRIPLE POINT LOW STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND BRISTOL BAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTH TONIGHT AND SPREAD SNOW INTO THE INTERIOR AND BRING DRYING TO
THE COASTS. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW
THE SW ALASKA AGAIN LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NEXT WEATHER
PRODUCER AFTER THIS WILL BE THE STRONG LOW WHICH MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AK PEN MON MORNING AND TO KODIAK ON MON AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AK PEN AND BRISTOL BAY. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE AK PEN WILL BE MIXED. SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MON WILL BECOME MIXED
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN END OF THE ZONE.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ENCOMPASSES THE BERING SEA. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL BERING BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH THE JET
STREAM WELL TO THE SOUTH...NO STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 132 150 155 170 185 352 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC FEB 12