Small Craft Advisory 133, NWS Anchorage, AK

054 
FZAK52 PAFC 181252
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190300-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 MB LOW 160 NM EAST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 100 NM WEST OF ST PAUL AT
974 MB SUN AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES SUN EVENING. A 963 MB LOW MOVES
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO 380 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND MOVES TO 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY AND STRENGTHENS TO 957 MB
LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-190300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-190300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-190300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-190300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-190300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-190300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-190300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-190300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-190300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-190300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-190300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-190300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 18 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI FEB 17 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODEL TIMING
AND INTENSITY ISSUES. THE GFS THROUGH 60 HRS (00Z MON) APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST COMPROMISE IN SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
BEYOND 60 HRS.

.UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF A RAPIDLY
APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND SAT. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS DISRUPTED AND PUSHED SOUTH AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH FROM THE BERING SEA SUN.

.SURFACE...LITTLE WIND WITH AREAS OF DISORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. THE WEAKENING LOW NEAR THE DELTA
COAST DISSIPATES TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO A DEVELOPING WAVE SOUTH OF UNALASKA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE WAVE NEAR UNALASKA DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER
THE AK PEN TONIGHT. A TRIPLE POINT FORMS FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE
GULF AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS THROUGH SUN. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SAT THEN
STALLS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH SUN. THE LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY MOVES TO NORTHWEST OF ADAK ON SUN
AND MAINTAINS INTENSITY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A BROAD AREAS OF RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS...MIXED ALONG THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE GULF ON SAT AS A FRONTAL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT
THE WESTERN GULF/KODIAK ISLAND EARLY SAT MORNING AND SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG GAP FLOWS WILL ALSO BE EVIDENT
ACROSS THE KENAI PEN AND ANCHORAGE BOWL AS WELL AS STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST. WINDS AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE SOME
POTENTIAL BLOWING SNOW ISSUES OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PEN ON SAT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SHOWERY ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE GULF SYSTEM WEAKENS.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREAS WILL BE REPLACED
WITH A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL TROUGH AND LOW MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AK PEN. THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE BRISTOL AREA WITH DOWN-SLOPING NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS COASTAL BRISTOL BAY ALONG
WITH STRONG GAP FLOWS THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TONIGHT. MAY SEE
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS WITH POOR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW IN THESE
AREAS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUN.
.AK PEN...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AK PEN TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST. SNOW OR MIX WILL BECOME SHOWERY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
RETREATING WAVE SAT.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...A WEAKENING FRONT AND WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/WEST BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH THE JET
STREAM WELL TO THE SOUTH...NO STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 130 132 140 150 155 160 165 172 351 352 411
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC FEB 12