High Wind Watch 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

956 
WWAK71 PAFC 160127 CCA
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012

AKZ131-161745-
/X.COR.PAFC.HW.A.0018.121217T0100Z-121217T1600Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
425 PM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. 

* WIND...NORTHEAST 30 TO 45 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER.
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW. 

&&

$$

306 
WWAK71 PAFC 161350
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 AM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

AKZ131-170300-
/X.EXT.PAFC.HW.A.0018.121217T0300Z-121217T2100Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
450 AM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WIND...NORTHEAST 30 TO 45 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS 55 TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
  LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED
  AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

323 
WWAK71 PAFC 170050
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
350 PM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

AKZ131-170200-
/X.CAN.PAFC.HW.A.0018.121217T0300Z-121217T2100Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
350 PM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH. 


$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE.
FORECAST TRENDS IN THE EAST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ARE REASONABLE. 12Z
RUN OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
OF THE NEXT STORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN SUN NIGHT
AND MON. AFTERNOON PACKAGES OUT WEST WILL LEAN TOWARD THESE MODELS
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...THE FINER MESH NAM MODEL WILL BE
USED THROUGH MON TO CAPTURE OUTFLOW WINDS. AFTER THAT WILL TRANSITION
TO A ECMWF/GFS BLEND TO TUE AFTERNOON.

.ANALYSIS...
WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED NORTHERL WINDS TENDED TO WEAKEN
MORNING INVERSIONS OVER COOK INLET AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
LESSENED THE EXTEND OF STRATUS AND FOG. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WERE
EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...NOTABLY VALDEZ...WHITTIER...AND
SEWARD. STRONG GAP FLOWS THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WERE EXPERIENCED
IN WESTERN GULF.

OUT WEST...A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA. A
LARGE AREA OF OPEN CELL CU...ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WERE
EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. SHOWERS WERE ALSO
EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WERE
EVIDENT OVER THE AK PEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
OUTFLOW FLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HRS. THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AS COLD AIR
BUILDS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH MON. A LOW PRESSURE
COMPLEX OVER THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND
WILL HOLD STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG OUTFLOW
AND GAP FLOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST...WESTERN
GULF...AND THROUGH THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH MON MORNING. GAP
FLOWS IN THE VALDEZ AREA WILL INTENSIFY SOME LATE SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MON MORNING AND MAY APPROACH WIND WIND LEVELS. WINDS NEAR
WHITTIER MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THE WEST
AND NW GAP FLOWS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE ENHANCED TONIGHT AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN WITH RIDING IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING
STORM MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. WINDS AND RENEWED PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE GULF TUE.

OUT WEST...
A COUPLE LOW CENTERS AND TROUGHS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SNOW
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO SW ALASKA THROUGH MON. THE STRONGER OF THE SYSTEMS
IMPACTS MUCH OF SW ALASKA ON SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON WITH SNOW AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST AND INTENSIFIES UNDER FAVORABLE JET SUPPORT. THIS CENTER
MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE SUN NIGHT...EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE GULF TUE MORNING. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS CENTER SO THAT PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE CHAIN...THEN
BECOMING A SHOWERY MIX OR SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE. EARLIER RUNS HAD THIS
SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD HAVE BROUGHT A BETTER
CHANCE OF BLIZZARD POTENTIAL TO THE PRIBILOFS AND SW AK. THE NOW MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK LESSENS THIS POTENTIAL CONSIDERABLY FOR THE PRIBILOFS
AND THE YUKON DELTA...THERE STILL MAY BE A CHANCE FOR BRISTOL BAY MON
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES OFF INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE...HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE WITH
MOVING A FRONT INTO THE WESTERN BERING PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130
         GALES...127 128 132 138 150 160 179 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 12