High Wind Watch 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

536 
WWAK71 PAFC 250016
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
416 PM AKDT MON SEP 24 2012


AKZ125-251330-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0012.120925T2000Z-120926T0500Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
416 PM AKDT MON SEP 24 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN
ARM...

* LOCATION...PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

* WIND...EAST WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 75 MPH. 

* TIMING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED 
  AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

311 
WWAK71 PAFC 251252
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
452 AM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

AKZ125-260200-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0012.120925T2000Z-120926T0500Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0019.120925T2200Z-120926T0500Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
452 AM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM. 

* WIND...EAST WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH. 

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
  CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
  EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED 
  AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. 

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. THERE ARE A FEW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A MAJOR LOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF AROUND MIDWEEK...AND BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY A FURTHER EAST TRACK SIMILAR TO THE NAM AND ECMWF IS
PREFERRED. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST (DAY
5-8) WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED MAINLAND ALASKA
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS WEAKENING AND IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS RACED NORTHWARD
WITH THE JET STREAM AND IS ALREADY APPARENT ON SATELLITE OVER THE
ARCTIC OCEAN. THE REMNANT COLD UPPER LOW IS ALLOWING IMPRESSIVE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. FURTHER WEST...A GENERALLY DISORGANIZED BAND
OF CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE AS IT MAKES PROGRESS EASTWARD. A STRONG 160+
KT ZONAL JET STREAM NEAR 40N WILL BEGIN TO INFUSE ENERGY INTO THIS
BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW OVER THE COMING DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS TO A TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH COOK
INLET. IF A LINE OF SHOWERS ENDS UP STATIONARY OVER A GIVEN
LOCATION...SOME ADDITIONAL SWELLING OF LOCAL STREAMS IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. FOR THIS REASON A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL...WITH FLOOD WARNINGS ELSEWHERE AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING YET ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS BEFORE...HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL ALONG THE COASTLINES AND THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY LIGHTER RAIN WILL ALSO FALL IN THE NORMALLY
DRY WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WESTERN KENAI UP THROUGH
THE ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THUS EXPECT ONLY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING HIGH WINDS BACK TO FAVORED AREAS INCLUDING TURNAGAIN
ARM...WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA...A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST
AS THE GULF LOW MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MONDAY EVENING AND MOVES NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...COMPLEX LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO
GRADUALLY GAIN STRENGTH WHILE MARCHING EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO HAVE IMPACTED MOST
LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
A MAJOR LOW WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WESTERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. UNLIKE
PREVIOUS THE STORMS OF RECENT WEEKS...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY IN THE GULF INSTEAD OF MOVING INTO INTERIOR ALASKA. THIS
WILL KEEP RAINY AND WINDY WEATHER CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTLINES
AND KODIAK ISLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 111 121 125 145
         FLOOD ADVISORY 101 141
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175
                      176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON SEP 12