Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 79, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE NAM MODEL LOOKS THE BEST FOR THE COOK INLET
REGION FOR TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE THE BEST ON A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH ACROSS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT
AND FRI. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES IN THE
EAST...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER ON THE LOW MOVEMENT. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE REASONABLE OUT WEST.

.ANALYSIS...
.UPPER LEVELS...
A LONG WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND. THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. A DEVELOPING
SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI
MORNING THEN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRI AFTERNOON. THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING MOVES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FRI
NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW COMPLEX SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
MOVES TO OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE FRI
NIGHT.

.SURFACE...
THE WEAKENING STORM CENTER NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING IS MOVING
NORTH AND WEAKENING. THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI
MORNING...THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SW ALASKA TONIGHT. A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS FRI.
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC DEEPENS INTO THE 950S AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THIS CENTER EVENTUALLY
WEAKENS INTO THE 960S AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT.
SECONDARY CENTERS FORM ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKENING LOW
CENTER MOVING NORTH. A DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
FRI WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE GULF WITH
SNOW INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A RENEWED CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MUCH WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY
THIS WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL EXPAND AND
BRING A LARGE AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE TWO ZONES...A STRONG WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP AND BRING A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION...IF NOT ALL RAIN...ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK...AND WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE GULF...SOUTHERN ALASKA...AND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL HELP BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THESE REGIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 191 AND 195.
MARINE...GALES...120 130 132 150 171 179 185
         STORMS...155 160 165 170 172 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 12