Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 66, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE EC MODELS IS STILL
PREFERRED OVER THE OTHER MODELS BECAUSE IT HAS THE BEST CONSISTENCY
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE SITS OVER WESTERN CANADA AND MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA AND AN UPPER TROUGH STILL REMAINS OVER THE BERING
SEA. AN UPPER LOW SITS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LINKED TO THE
BERING SEA TROUGH. A STRONG UPPER FLOW ORIGINATING NEAR THE TROPICS
IS MOVING WARMER AIR OVER THE STATE. A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. A TROUGH
OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST HAD PRODUCED AREAS OF
SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SURFACE
RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN MAINLAND HAS KEPT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WEDNESDAY WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD AS SNOW
INTO THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCT RAIN SHADOWS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION FROM FALLING OVER
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY, ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MOST OF THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND BECOME SHOWERS NIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL PUSH THE
AREAS OF SNOW ALONG THE COAST OUT OVER THE BERING TONIGHT. THE LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND MOVE
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BERING THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS PRODUCED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH CHANGE
THE SNOW TO RAIN THIS EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...SNOW AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
SPREAD WEST INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOFS BRINGING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THESE AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL
MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF ATTU THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW AND GUSTY EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALEUTIAN WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD INTO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN MAINLAND WILL INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO ENTER THE GULF
FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ALASKA PENINSULA...EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
PRIBILOFS.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176
         179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM FEB 12