Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 65, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHES UP THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING DUE SOUTH UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA. THIS ALSO SERVES AS THE
BOUNDARY FOR THE WEATHER FRONT THAT IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...YESTERDAY THE THOUGHT WAS THAT THE ECMWF MODEL
WAS ERRANT IN SLOWING DOWN THE LARGE LOW APPROACHING THE GULF OF
ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS WAS FAVORED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND THE WAY THAT INFLUENCES THE STORM TRACK. HOWEVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STRONGER THAN THE GFS OR NAM MODEL HAS BEEN
INDICATING AND THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF WAS THE MODEL THAT
WAS THE BEST CHOICE. THE STRONGER RIDGE IS PREVENTING THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW FROM MOVING FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWING ITS OVERALL SPEED AS
WELL. THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY AND THE NEWER RUNS OF
THE GFS ARE SERVICEABLE AS WELL. THE NAM IS STILL TO AGGRESSIVE IN
PUSHING THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOT BEING USED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
PUSHING WESTWARD. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS OCCURRING IN THAT AREA AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S. THE WARM AIR ALOFT
IS ALSO IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE AS TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER
ELEVATION AROUND ANCHORAGE HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HAVE PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE GULF
COAST AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE RAIN THAT WILL OCCUR IN
KODIAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
THERE SHOULD BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD IN
KODIAK CITY WITH HALF COMING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE FROZEN
GROUND AND TWO FOOT SNOW DEPTH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE PONDING IN THE
AREAS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS THAT
ARE POORLY DRAINED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WEATHER PATTERN CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
STATE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MOST OF
THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER BACK INTO THE MAINLAND.
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN REGION AS WELL
AS KODIAK ISLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 150 155 170 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 12