Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 192, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. THE ONLY REAL ISSUES INVOLVE THE HANDLING OF THE
STORM CENTER WHICH MOVES TO THE SE GULF THU NIGHT. MODEL PRESSURES
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THOUGH POSITIONING IS OFF SOME. FOR
NOW WILL LEAN WITH A NAM/ECMWF BLEND.

.500 MB...
A GENERAL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK. LOW
HEIGHTS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF/NE PACIFIC AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY BRISK GAP FLOWS WERE EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...DRY OFF SHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE COLD ADVECTION OFF THE SW MAINLAND PRODUCED CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE AK PEN. A WEAK OCCLUDED
FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA DISSIPATES TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING WEST IN THE GULF WILL BRING SNOW TO KODIAK
ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME GUSTY NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS THU WILL ENHANCE
LOCALLY DRIVEN GAP FLOWS AND LOWER WIND CHILL READINGS. THE STORM
CENTER APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF THU AND FRI WILL BRING STORM
FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE MARINE AREAS.

.SW ALASKA...
BRISK AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AMBIENT AIR TEMPS IN WINDY AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH AS NOT TO POSE A WIND CHILL THREAT(ADVISORY/WARNING).
INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN CHILLY UNDER CALM WINDS.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE ENHANCED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES TO
THE EAST. A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WINDS LIKELY WILL APPROACH GALE STRENGTH ON WED. THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL SEE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 127 155 160 165 170 180 351 352 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 12