Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 145, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTHERN BERING SEA. A UPPER
RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD AREA LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS
ANOTHER WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATE SUNDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL SWING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN ALASKA
SUNDAY THEN FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER BRISTO BAY WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. WINDS SPEED ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL INCREASE
AND POSSIBLE DROP WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 40 BELOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW SHOWER WILL REMAIN MAINLY ON THE BERING
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING
WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SUNDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THEE WESTERN BERING MONDAY. RAIN, SNOW AND STRONG SOUTH WIND WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS WILL
DRAW THE COLD DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 12