Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 110, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TODAY
WITH THE JET STREAM STEERING MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WELL SOUTH OF
ALASKA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN OUR DOMAIN IS A 976 MB LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER TO
THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS OUT WEST. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
PART OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INCREASED CLOUDS...THE CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...BESIDES THE NAM...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE GIVEN WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS THE FIRST OF MANY SHORT WAVES BEGIN TO INVADE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. STEADY SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WILL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
KODIAK ISLAND. THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL MAINLY SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

925 MB TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY OVER ANCHORAGE ARE ABOUT -6 DEG C BUT
WILL WARM UP BY WEDNESDAY TO ABOUT 2 DEG C. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR
FIRST SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP AROUND THE REGION. COUPLED WITH THE LONGER
DAYS AND ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK...SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO MELT THE
SNOW MUCH QUICKER. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT SO MUCH OF THE MELTED SNOW WILL REFREEZE AT
NIGHT...CAUSING LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.

DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN SOME
INTERIOR AREAS REACH AS HIGH AS THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY MID WEEK. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...THE RESIDUAL LOW WILL STILL BE SPINNING IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS TO FILL BACK IN
OVER THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN BERING SEA
HAS STALLED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY STRONG SO WINDS ARE BEING FUNNELED THROUGH THE
TERRAIN RESULTING IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE THE MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK THANKS TO WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL
CROSS THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS RANGES AND BRING MOST OF SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
THE PARENT LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
ACROSS THE AKPEN TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO SETTLE BACK OVER THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST LOWS
WELL SOUTH OF OUR DOMAIN THIS WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE
MAIN CIRCULATION NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL VERY SLOWLY MEANDER AROUND
THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH NO WATCHES
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES EXPECTED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 170 172 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAR 12