Gale Warning 840, NWS Anchorage, AK

146 
FZAK51 PAFC 061238
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 MB LOW 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 240 
NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB THU AFTERNOON THEN
DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRI.

$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS WEST. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY FROM THE BARREN
ISLANDS WEST. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-070300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST WED DEC 5 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE BLOCKING RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
BERING SEA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IS RETROGRADING INTO
NORTHEAST RUSSIA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF
THE FORECAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN PROBLEMS ARE THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW AND HOW FAST THE INITIAL WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THE GFS AND NAM ARE VERY CLOSE ON BOTH OF THESE...WITH
THE NAM JUST A TOUCH FASTER WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF IS
FURTHER WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND SLOWER WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
THE GLOBAL GEM IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. SO THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT IS LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST GENERALLY LEANS TOWARD THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE CURRENT PATTERN OF COLD AND DRY OVER THE MAINLAND AND COLD AND
SHOWERY OVER KODIAK/AKPEN/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A
BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA UPPER LOW
SPLITS WITH ONE HALF OF THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
THE OTHER HALF RETROGRADING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OTHER AREAS WILL DECREASE AS THE COLD ADVECTION
TAPERS OFF.

THE BLOCKING HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN ALASKA LOW TO ALSO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL OPEN UP SOUTHERN ALASKA TO
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS...ALASKA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHERN GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA ON SATURDAY FOR THE FIRST DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
QUITE A WHILE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
SHARP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA IN THE MONDAY TO MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT BY
THIS TIME THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS IS
STARTING TO BECOME LARGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 130 138 140 141
                 150 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 12