Gale Warning 804, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 062032 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

CORRECTED ZONE 412

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-070300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

889 
FZAK62 PAFC 062341
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
A 955 MB LOW AT 48N 170W FRI EVENING WILL MOVE TO 53N 168W AT 958 MB
BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

538 
FZAK62 PAFC 071206
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080300-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 972 MB LOW AT 41N 171W WILL MOVE TO 49N 169W AT 953 MB SAT MORNING
AND WEAKEN TO 978 AS IT MOVES TO 58N 161W SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF 173W. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF
173W. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF 173W. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF 173W. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST WED DEC 5 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE BLOCKING RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
BERING SEA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IS RETROGRADING INTO
NORTHEAST RUSSIA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF
THE FORECAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN PROBLEMS ARE THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW AND HOW FAST THE INITIAL WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THE GFS AND NAM ARE VERY CLOSE ON BOTH OF THESE...WITH
THE NAM JUST A TOUCH FASTER WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF IS
FURTHER WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND SLOWER WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
THE GLOBAL GEM IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. SO THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT IS LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST GENERALLY LEANS TOWARD THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE CURRENT PATTERN OF COLD AND DRY OVER THE MAINLAND AND COLD AND
SHOWERY OVER KODIAK/AKPEN/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A
BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA UPPER LOW
SPLITS WITH ONE HALF OF THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
THE OTHER HALF RETROGRADING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OTHER AREAS WILL DECREASE AS THE COLD ADVECTION
TAPERS OFF.

THE BLOCKING HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN ALASKA LOW TO ALSO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL OPEN UP SOUTHERN ALASKA TO
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS...ALASKA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHERN GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA ON SATURDAY FOR THE FIRST DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
QUITE A WHILE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
SHARP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA IN THE MONDAY TO MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT BY
THIS TIME THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS IS
STARTING TO BECOME LARGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 130 138 140 141
                 150 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 12