Gale Warning 825, NWS Anchorage, AK

235 
FZAK62 PAFC 261255
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 MB LOW NEAR 50N 165W WILL WEAKEN TO 973 MB NEAR 55N 153W LATE
WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 962 MB NEAR 50N 172E LATE WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY
MOVE TO 52N 179W AT SAME STRENGTH BY LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF
173W. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF
173W. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

078 
FZAK62 PAFC 270014
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 964 MB LOW NEAR 53N 158W WEAKENS TO 988 MB IN THE WESTERN GULF 
THU EVENING. A 972 MB LOW NEAR 49N 172E MOVES NEAR 50N 178E AS 
IT STRENGTHENS TO 962 MB...THEN MOVES TO 52N 177W AT 964 MB FRI
AFTERNOON. A 979 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 58N 162W THU MORNING AND 
MOVES TO 57N 180 FRI AFTERNOON WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 969 MB. 
$$

PKZ411-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 35 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF 175W...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. E OF 175W...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT TOWARDS MORNING. 
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
210 PM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING REMAINS STATIONARY...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROPELLING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN GULF...EASTERN BERING...AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. A SHARPLY DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND
THEN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A
PERSISTENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTHEASTERLY JET STREAK IS FINALLY
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND MOVING NORTH TODAY INTO THE
INTERIOR...AND SERVES AS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH IS SURPRISING
IN THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT NOT SURPRISING IN THAT ALL OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL FROM ANCHORAGE AND PALMER NORTH AND
WEST. DRYING WILL COMMENCE BY LATE TONIGHT INLAND BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST LATER IN THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY DIE AS
IT MOVES TO THE GULF COAST AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO PUSH IT INLAND BY THE TIME IT REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL. EXPECT
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS A
BARRIER JET BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AIR NORTH INTO THE
REGION...SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SNOW AND SOME RAIN AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH RANGE SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ONLY DOWNSLOPE DRYING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEATHER FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS MUCH WARMER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TODAY AND THEN
PUSHES A FRONT NORTH INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW...WIND...AND SOME RAIN AFFECTING
DUTCH HARBOR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
WHEN RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

ALL MODELS AGREE ON AN ACTIVE AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WELL INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THEM
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH...155
MARINE...GALES...120 125 132 140 155 160 165 171 172 175 180
         STORMS...130 138 150 170 176
         HVY FRZG SPRY...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC DEC 12