Gale Warning 725, NWS Anchorage, AK

764 
FZAK61 PAFC 230719 AAA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1020 PM AKST THU NOV 22 2012

UPDATED ZONE 351

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 959 MB LOW NEAR 53N 144W MOVES TO 55N 135W AND WEAKENS TO 1001 MB
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
1020 PM AKST THU NOV 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU NOV 22 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

081 
FZAK61 PAFC 231200
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 54N 142W MOVES TO 55N 135W AND WEAKENS TO      
1001 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW AT 1006 MB 
WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N 154W BY LATE SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING NW 10 TO 20 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING N TO W 10 TO 25 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

258 
FZAK61 PAFC 240013
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 979 MB LOW NEAR 55N 140W WILL MOVE TO 56N 135W AND WEAKEN TO 1006
MB SAT AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 55N 153W AT 1009
MB SUN AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING NW 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING N TO W 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE BERING SEA IS
FORMING INTO A CLOSED BLOCKING HIGH...AND IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND INTO
THE GULF...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF INTERIOR ALASKA AS A STRONG STORM IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTH. ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...NUMEROUS WEAK
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
KODIAK ISLAND. THE MAIN STORY...HOWEVER...WILL BE THE STRONG LOW
DEEPENING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTH
TODAY...THE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE DENSE COLD AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH FAVORED GAPS IN
THE TERRAIN. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRONG GULF OF ALASKA STORM...WITH LITTLE DISCREPANCY ON PLACEMENT OR
STRENGTH. BASED ON SATELLITE SIGNATURE AS OF 1330 UTC THIS
MORNING...THE STORM IS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED...AND SHOULD REACH PEAK
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM WAS FAVORED FOR THIS FORECAST DUE
TO ITS ABILITY TO BETTER SIMULATE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INTENSE GAP WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL START RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MAINLY CLEAR AND
COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...AS THE STRONG LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA APPROACHES THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RAPIDLY TIGHTEN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOCALIZED CHANNELED
WINDS. ALL THE MAJOR GAP WIND LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY...VALDEZ...SEWARD...WHITTIER...AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA WILL
SEE STRONG WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR VALDEZ...HIGH WINDS UP TO 80
MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THOMPSON PASS AND DOWN INTO THE CITY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...PEAKING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG GAP WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY
WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 35
BELOW ZERO WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER PASSES THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE...INCLUDING BROAD PASS.

NEAR KODIAK ISLAND...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP BANDS
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS...HOWEVER... WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/PENINSULA...
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BEFORE FINALLY SLACKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE BLOCKING
HIGH BEGINS TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE OVER WESTERN ALASKA. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY OVER THE PENINSULA AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SLIDES EAST.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
SUPPORT AREAS OF RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN LATE FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST...MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
FRIDAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND GALES TO
THE CHAIN. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA...INCLUDING THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS...HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND THEN WEAKEN. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT GLOBAL PATTERN FEATURING A
BLOCKING HIGH OVER GREENLAND...AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND EASTERN BERING...WILL KEEP MUCH OF INTERIOR ALASKA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING
SEA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 131 135.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 127 128 351 352.
         GALE WARNING 120 121 126 130 132 150 160 175 176 180 411.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 121 126 127 160 180 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AHSENMACHER NOV 12