Gale Warning 687, NWS Anchorage, AK

362 
FZAK51 PAFC 260607 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1005 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

UPDATED ZONE 129
 
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261500-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A SERIES OF FRONTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH 
THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ120-261500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-261500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-261500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1005 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-261500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 15
KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. N OF DANGEROUS
CAPE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-261500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8
FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-261500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

540 
FZAK51 PAFC 261142
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-270300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-270300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND 20
KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. N OF DANGEROUS
CAPE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1255 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE BERING SEA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE ALASKA
REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE. THE UPPER HIGH IS BUILDING NORTH AND EASTWARD TOWARD
MAINLAND ALASKA AS ENERGY TRACKS UP ITS WEST SIDE. MEANWHILE A
LARGE MULTI-CENTERED LOW COMPLEX IS SPINNING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
TO NORTH-EAST PACIFIC. STRONGER WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION ARE AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. FINALLY...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS
MOVING ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK OF SHORT-WAVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO PREFER GFS/EC SOLUTION. OTHER THAN
THAT THE PRIMARY MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF PACIFIC LOWS...BUT THESE WILL NOT AFFECT THE FORECASTS FURTHER
NORTH ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. OBSERVATIONS
IN THE KODIAK ISLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA AREAS SHOW WIND SPEEDS
MATCH UP WELL WITH THE MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO THEY WILL
BE USED AS GUIDANCE FOR ANY MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST WIND SPEEDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH
AND EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD. A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THIS REGION. LATEST MODELS ARE STRONGER WITH
THE PACIFIC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL BE INCREASING MAXIMUM
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TO STORM FORCE.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE MAINLAND THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW WILL ALSO CAUSE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN UP A BIT OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOCALIZED GAP
WINDS...BUT WITHOUT ANY OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS TO HELP OUT...
THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG. ASIDE FROM THESE LOCALIZED
WINDS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLD AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND OF ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE STARTING TO LOCK ONTO A
COMMON SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK WITH BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE.
THE KEY FEATURE IS A STRONG TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC
AND ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DETAILS IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN TO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC
INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SNOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. WIDESPREAD COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE AREAS.

LASTLY...MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH A
LOW CROSSING THE NORTH PACIFIC WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MAJOR STORM
MOVING INTO THE GULF BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155 170.
         GALE WARNING...132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 12