Gale Warning 610, NWS Anchorage, AK

429 
FZAK51 PAFC 260601 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...UPDATED
1000 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

UPDATED ZONE 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 977 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK TUE
EVENING WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 952 MB 125 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY
WED AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING TO 972 MB 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
CITY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-261500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT
SE WIND 50 KT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-261500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-261500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-261500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT IN THE EVENING. EAST
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT 15 FT EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT EXCEPT 16 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-261500-
KACHEMAK BAY
1000 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

983 
FZAK51 PAFC 260723 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...UPDATED
1122 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

UPDATED ZONES 120 125 129 130 132 138 140 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 977 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK TUE
EVENING WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 952 MB 125 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY
WED AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING TO 972 MB 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
CITY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-261500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1122 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 60 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-261500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1122 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-261500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1122 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-261500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1122 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 14
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
1122 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24
FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1122 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1122 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 55 KT...EXCEPT N 35 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-261500-
KACHEMAK BAY
1000 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

CORRECTED TO ADD PUBLIC HEADLINES

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE REGION ALOFT AND IS CENTERED
VERY NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. NORTH AND EAST OF THIS CENTER...A LARGE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN WEST AS THEY OCCLUDE AND MOVE BACK
TOWARDS THE PARENT LOW. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN TODAY WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EXIT REGION
OF THE JET LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL ABSORB ALL OF THE
PREVIOUS LOWS TO ITS NORTH AS IT BOMBS OUT APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST
GULF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
NORTH TO THE NORTH GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW STALLS IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. LATEST FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW REACHING PEAK STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 950 MB ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THERE HAVE BEEN MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO
TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS LOW TO THE NORTH OF KODIAK AND THEN WEST
THROUGH THE BARREN ISLAND REGION TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY. FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE...THE NAM WAS PREFERRED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
WHICH IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE EC AND GFS...THEN THE
EUROPEAN WAS PREFERRED WITH THE STRONG LOW IN THE GULF AND ITS
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT NORTH AND EAST TO THE GULF COAST AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS WITH TIME FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THE UPCOMING FRONT WILL BE HOW STRONG THE FRONT
REMAINS AS IT MOVES INLAND...AS WELL AS PREDICTING HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE AT WHITTIER AND PORTAGE VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND AS THE EMBEDDED TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES NORTH AND THEN WEST
THROUGH THE BARREN ISLAND REGION. WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND
WATCH TO A WARNING AS THE GRADIENT LOOKS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT HIGH WINDS AT PORTAGE. FOR WHITTIER...HIGH WINDS ARE
CONTINGENT ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE SHOULD YIELD MORE
CLUES AND WILL FINE TUNE THE WORDING OF THE WARNING IF NECESSARY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH RAINFALL...WHICH WILL BE HEAVIEST OVER
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT
EXPLICITLY PRODUCING QPF OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH RANGE
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS SOME
CONTRADICTORY EVIDENCE IN THE MODEL DATA THAT SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE
A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO AFFECT THE ANCHORAGE
AREA. FOR ONE...THE FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS MORE
GEOSTROPHIC...WHICH MEANS THAT THE AIR MASS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS IS NOT TOO UNLIKE THE AIR MASS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
ABOVE MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL...LIFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS
INDICATED BY STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...
WITH AN EXTREMELY MOIST SNOW GROWTH LAYER (WHERE THE RAIN IS ACTUALLY
PRODUCED) TO TAP INTO AS THE STRONGER LIFT MOVES OVERHEAD. ASSUMING
THESE TWO FEATURES HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ARE IN THE MODELS NOW...WE
MAY SEE A MODERATE TO INTENSE BAND OF RAIN ALOFT THAT SHOULD EASILY
OVERCOME ANY DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN TOWN...A STRONG
DOWN-GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY...THEN THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO ORIENT ITSELF IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR A TURNAGAIN ARM WIND TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST SIDE OF TOWN LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. A MORE
DOWN-INLET GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW THE WIND TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA. RAIN IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE INTENSE LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST GULF.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH A LARGE AREA OF EMBEDDED GALES WILL
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE BERING REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY...NORTH PACIFIC...AND SOUTHWEST
GULF. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN AS IT DRIFTS
NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. AS IT SPINS DOWN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL LIKELY DIVE SOUTH TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND THEN WESTERN GULF
REGIONS BY SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. CLEARING SKIES AND A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD THEN
OVERTAKE THE REGION AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...125
         FLOOD WARNING...121 125 145
MARINE...GALES...129 132 140 141 155 160 180 170 171 172 175 185 179
         STORMS...120 125 130 138 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC SEP 12