Gale Warning 537, NWS Anchorage, AK

046 
FZAK61 PAFC 272341
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-281500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 58N 148W WILL MOVE TO 61N 150W AT 990 MB FRI
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT.
A 1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 58N 150W SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-281500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-281500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

652 
FZAK61 PAFC 281155
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 28 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-290300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 982 MB LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS 
FRI MORNING. A 1004 MB LOW FORMS SAT MORNING NEAR 57N 155W
AND WEAKENS TO 1008 MB SAT NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO 58N 147W.
$$

PKZ351-290300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-290300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP IS A STRONG LOW SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND THAT HAS UNDERGONE EXPLOSIVE STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST
12-24 HOURS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE LOW HAS DROPPED TO NEAR 950
MB AS THE SYSTEM GAINS ENERGY FROM A 170 KT JET STREAM ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. HEAVY RAIN AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 84 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST TODAY. THE GFS IS A BIT ON THE SLOW SIDE WITH SURFACE
LOW POSITION AS THE MAJOR GULF LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TOMORROW...THUS HAVE OPTED FOR A NAM/EC PHILOSOPHY IN
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW WILL
IMPACT THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS EVENING BEFORE BREAKING APART ON THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG
WINDS TO MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS...MAINLY AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...EQUALLY
SIGNIFICANT TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE THE EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAT DEVELOP AROUND COOK INLET DUE TO THE VERY LOW
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS STORM. THIS IS ALREADY RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN COOK INLET AND AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG THE INLET IN THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING. MOST INLAND
AREAS WILL REMAIN DOWNSLOPED AS THE STORM POUNDS THE COASTS...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT SEE MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL UNTIL THE LEFTOVERS OF
THIS STORM MOVE ONSHORE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST...DESPITE THE PROXIMITY TO SUCH A DEEP LOW MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE LARGEST STORM IMPACT
BEING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE BERING SEA REGION FROM THE BERING STRAIT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL
SWING WINDS AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. NO MAJOR STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ONCE THE CURRENT STRONG LOW IN THE GULF WEAKENS AND THE REMNANTS
DRIFT INLAND ON SATURDAY MOST OF THE STATE WILL START TO SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE PLACES IN
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL START TO SEE MORE SUN THAN HAS BEEN SEEN IN A
WHILE...THE PRICE TO BE PAID WILL BE THAT SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THIS MAY WELL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT FREEZES TO MOST
INLAND AREAS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 121 125
         FLOOD ADVISORY 141
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 130
         STORM WARNING 120 125 132 138 140
         GALE WARNING 129 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON SEP 12