Gale Warning 492, NWS Anchorage, AK

911 
FZAK52 PAFC 122256
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131500-
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MON EVENING MOVES 175 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT TUE NIGHT AT 1004 MB. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS IN THE
CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

PKZ150-131500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-131500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-131500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-131500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-131500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-131500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BERING SIDE...NE 35 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 6
FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.MON...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 20 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...NE WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-131500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-131500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-131500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-131500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-131500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-131500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 12 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT AUG 11 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE ARE THREE MAIN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTROLLING THE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAND...THE STRONGEST IS DIPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FEEDING OFF A N/S ORIENTED
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. IT IS BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE LAST STACKED
LOW CENTER IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF BRINGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT
WITH AREAS OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA
DRY. REMNANT CLOUDS FROM THE LAST GULF LOW HAVE BEEN TRAPPED UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED THE LOW
POSITION CORRECTLY...LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND
UNDERESTIMATION OF LOW STRENGTH. ALL GUIDANCE IS TOO FAR EASTWARD
WITH THE LOW POSITION AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL POSITION IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE HAS A MUCH
BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BERING SEA LOW WITH MOST
SHOWING A COMPLETE PHASE WITH THE WEAKER LOW TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE AGREED UPON THE DETAILS OF SURFACE LOW POSITION AND
STRENGTH ARE STILL IN QUESTION. GENERALLY THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION WELL SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE IN THE DIFFERENCES FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
STANDPOINT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. WHILE GAINING A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH THE
UPPER HIGH WILL HAVE A HARD TIME COMPLETELY SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS
TODAY. THE EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF LOW WILL KEEP ADVECTING
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO GET DISPLACED BY THE
BERING SEA SYSTEM KEEPING WARMER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
FOR MOST AREAS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE INTERIOR AREAS REMAIN IN AN AREA OF BENIGN
WEATHER BETWEEN THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN BERING
AND THE GULF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MODERATED FROM THE LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF SYSTEM. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MIST OR PATCHY FOG BUT WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS UNLIKELY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL STAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA. STEADY
RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
ROUGHLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM DUTCH HARBOR/COLD BAY NORTHWARD JUST EAST
OF SAINT PAUL/SAINT GEORGE ISLAND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD TODAY THE FRONT WILL REORIENT ITSELF...SHIFTING
PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARD THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AS A NEW LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP RAIN AND WIND IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
TODAY'S EXTENDED FORECAST IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY...THE SAME BERING SEA
LOW OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD A
NEW CONSOLIDATED STACKED LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
SPREADING PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY STAY CONFINED TO MARINE AND COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER INLAND LOCALES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL AUG 12