Gale Warning 420, NWS Anchorage, AK

834 
FZAK52 PAFC 290812 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1212 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

UDPATED ZONE 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291500-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF UNALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO 350 NM
SOUTHEAST OF UNALASKA TUE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TO
990 MB 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-291500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-291500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 
FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-291500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-291500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-291500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-291500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-291500-
UNALASKA BAY
1212 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-291500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-291500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-291500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-291500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-291500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

488 
FZAK52 PAFC 291136
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300300-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 MB LOW 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 350 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN. A LOW FORMING ALONG
A SOUTHERN GULF WEATHER FRONT 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK TO 80 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK AT 982 MB THIS
EVENING...THEN DRIFT TO 110 NM EAST OF SITKINAK AT 993 MB THU
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ150-300300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-300300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-300300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-300300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-300300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 
FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-300300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-300300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-300300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-300300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-300300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-300300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-300300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STACKED LOW IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WORKING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS EVENING. SUNNY SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OUTSIDE OF COASTAL LOCATIONS TODAY. AIR MASS NOT ALL
THAT UNSTABLE OVER THE MAINLAND EXCEPT NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE NEAR
FAIRBANKS. SOME DISTURBANCES AROUND THE LOW MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE TODAY OVER THE MAINLAND. STRONG STACKED
LOW IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUPPORTED BY 140KT JET NEAR 47N. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AROUND THE LOW AND WITH THE FRONT. A
COUPLE OTHER FEATURES IN THE MIX ARE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT AND ANOTHER NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. FOG AND
STRATUS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN BERING AND KUSKO/BRISTOL BAY COAST
THIS MORNING. ALL OF IT HAS LIFTED ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN STRATUS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AT 500 MB. AFTER THIS
PERIOD THE GFS AND EC DIFFER SLIGHTLY. THE MAIN LOW POSITIONS IN THE
GULF AND WESTERN BERING STAY THE SAME. HOWEVER...THE GFS LOW
POSITIONS IS FARTHER WEST IN THE GULF WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES INTO EASTERN ALASKA. THE EC PUSHES THE GULF LOW A BIT
CLOSER THE PANHANDLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND CUTS OFF THE HIGH CENTER
OVER THE YUKON/EASTERN ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...GFS/EC/NAM MODELS
AGREE IN THE SAME MANNER. UK IS A BIT OFF FROM THE REST. THE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF ON
TUESDAY HAS BEEN GREAT WITH THE EC. AGAIN...BELIEVE THE EC HANDLING
OF THIS SITUATION. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE THE TROUGH IN THE RIGHT
POSITION BUT TEND NOT TO STAMP A DEEP ENOUGH LOW IN THE AREA GIVEN
THE JET SUPPORT. THE LOW CONSOLIDATES WELL OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES LITTLE THURSDAY BUT SWINGS EAST
FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE EC AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER A BIT MORE. EC
PUSHES FARTHER EAST AS GFS KEEPS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...THE DIFFERENCE IS THE EC HAS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE
REASON THE LOW BEGINS TO SWING EAST IS A UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC RIDING THE JET CORE NEAR 45N. BELIEVE THE EC AS THE JET
EXTENDS TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER LOW RE-CURVES SUNDAY...WITH
SURFACE LOWS CONSOLIDATING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. IN THE
MEANTIME...A LOW DROPS OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WESTERN BERING. THE LOW SLOWLY DROPS TO THE WEST OF SHEMYA BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. THE LOW SLOWLY
MOVES EAST INTO SATURDAY BY ALL MODEL ACCOUNTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE THE SLOW MOVEMENT NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z EC PUSHES
THE LOW FAST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. STICKING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN AT THIS PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
LOW IN THE GULF DISSIPATING WITH SOME VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROLLING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONLY EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AS A RESULT. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PRECIP TO COASTAL LOCATIONS THOUGH. RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED INTO
THE GULF TOMORROW. COMBINED WITH WARMER INLAND TEMPS TODAY...GOOD
THERMAL GRADIENT SETTING UP FOR GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TO SWING UP THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INLAND. LOW WRAPS INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP STAYING MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AND DIURNAL CONVECTION INLAND AND WINDS DIMINISHING
THURSDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTH COAST.

SOUTHWEST...
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING PUSHING FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE. LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BRINGING INCREASED WINDS TO THE AKPEN TODAY.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING WITH WIND SHEAR CLOSER TO THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY OF THE DIURNAL VARIETY AS THE LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT STAY TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EAST...EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MAINLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE LOW
WRAPS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY WITH MORE PRECIP ROLLING OVER
THE RANGE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. IN ADDITION...WARMER CONDITIONS
INLAND RE-ESTABLISH THE THERMAL TROUGH SPARKING DIURNAL CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS REMAINS TRUE INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. SOME
STRATUS MAY HIT THE KUSKO COAST AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

INCREASING OFF-SHORE FLOW WILL COME WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN OF BRISTOL BAY. INLAND...WEAK RIDGING GIVES WAY TO CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN TO A DIURNAL SHOWER PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
PER INCREASED CAPE VALUES BY TUE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROWING GALE FORCE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BACK TO ADAK THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS PUSHING EAST TONIGHT AS THE LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND PRECIP WILL BE ONE THE DECLINE AS A
RESULT. STRATUS AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE BERING. COLDER AIR TO
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW IN NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
OVER THE BERING AS A RESULT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH EACH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROLLING SOUTH THROUGH THE
BERING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW IS WRAPPED INTO THE GULF WITH
HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN THE BERING ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING WITH
SHOWERS. RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE WITH STRATUS AND LIGHT WINDS. OVER THE
WESTERN BERING...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG TERM PATTERN IS GULF AND KAMCHATKA LOWS. THEREFORE...WEATHER
WILL BE PRECIP RINGING THE GULF WITH WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. OVER THE BERING AND WEST
COAST...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH THERMAL LOW INLAND.
SO EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE BERING AND IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 130 132 150 155 165 170 172 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN