Gale Warning 395, NWS Anchorage, AK

649 
FZAK51 PAFC 091902 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1100 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

UPDATED ZONES 130 AND 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100300-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB ALEUTIAN LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB NEAR BRISTOL BAY LATE
WED NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND THU AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST GULF WED AFTERNOON AND REACH THE NORTH
GULF COAST WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ120-100300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT
INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SE WIND 35 KT
BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45
KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9
FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-100300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-100300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1100 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-100300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1100 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT SHIFTING TO SOUTH 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ141-100300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

899 
FZAK51 PAFC 092256
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 MB LOW NEAR CHIGNIK WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND 
THEN DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THU NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT 
AND DISSIPATE ON THU. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
THU MORNING AND TRACK TO THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN GULF THU NIGHT.


$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 50 KT DECREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH M ON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE E-W
ORIENTED AS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST PACIFIC LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE OVER THE YUKON
HAS BEEN BACKING TOWARD THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREAS LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SHORT-WAVE BEGINNING TO PIVOT AROUND ON ITSELF
AS THE LARGER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL SLOW THE
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING
SHOWS A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 9000 AND 10000 FEET WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY. WITH
MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE MAT-SU TO WESTERN KENAI EXPECT
ENOUGH HEATING INLAND BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO GET PAST THIS CAP
AND FORM A FEW SHOWERS.

A STRONG WESTERLY JET ALONG THE ALEUTIANS HAS REALLY ELONGATED THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...SUCH THAT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY LOW IS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR.
WEAK AND VARIABLE STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND STRATUS AND FOG
ARE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS VARY WITH ULTIMATE DESTINATION OF ALEUTIAN
LOW BUT THEY ARE ALL GROUPED IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. NAM IS THE
ONLY OUTLIER WITH A FASTER SPEED AND NOTICEABLY FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...NAM AND GEMGLB ARE THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP A PACIFIC LOW AND TRACK IT INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAD BEEN THE FAVORED SOLUTION ON MONDAY...BUT
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE ALL BACK OFF FROM THIS AND SHOW A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE AT BEST. WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC AIR IS
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WOULD FORM. WILL
TREND TOWARD A LESS SIGNIFICANT LOW BUT WON'T COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
IT FROM THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
STRENGTHENING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...
SO AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED. STEADY RAIN AND
SNOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN TO EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW WILL
THEN SHIFT AROUND AS TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE BUILDS
OUT AHEAD OF ALEUTIAN LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING TURNAGAIN
ARM/MATANUSKA VALLEY/AND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER. THIS RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST BRINGING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH IT. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL PRODUCE THE USUAL DOWNSLOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE COASTAL
RANGE...BUT AS IS TYPICAL DURING THE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE MONTHS
OF SUMMER...THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORT OF INLAND SHOWERS. AS THE STORM WEAKENS
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON THURSDAY A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL REINFORCE
RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST. WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS LARGELY WEAK AND ONSHORE
AT THE MOMENT WILL SHIFT TO OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN OUT AHEAD OF THE
ALEUTIAN LOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH HAVE DOMINATED THE WEATHER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO BRISTOL BAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKENS INLAND ON THURSDAY AREAS OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE ARCTIC IS BEGINNING TO
DROP SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH OVER
SIBERIA. THIS WAVE WILL SERVE TO RE-AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH...AS IT
DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SURFACE
LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND MAINLAND ALASKA AT THE END OF THIS WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER WAVES BECOMES MUCH
MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER THIS POINT...BUT IT APPEARS A TROUGH WILL SET
UP OVER THE EASTERN BERING WHILE MAINLAND ALASKA MAY ACTUALLY SEE
A RIDGE BUILD OVERHEAD IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. IF IN
FACT THIS DID VERIFY IT COULD MEAN A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP AND
THE END OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT SEA LEVEL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 152 NEAR ANIAK.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 12