Gale Warning 304, NWS Anchorage, AK

708 
FZAK52 PAFC 301151
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-310300-
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. A 994 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WEAKENS TO 1000 MB FRI
NIGHT 400 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT AND THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT.

$$

PKZ150-310300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-310300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-310300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-310300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-310300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-310300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT PACIFIC SIDE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-310300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-310300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT N 15 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 13
FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-310300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-310300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
SHEMYA W...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-310300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-310300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE PERSISTS
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE PARADE OF EASTERLY SHORTWAVES
CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN GULF AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA...ALASKA PENINSULA...AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OF A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN INLAND
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW EFFECTING COASTAL COMMUNITIES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS
THANKS TO A WEAKENING LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A 970 MB LOW
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER AROUND THE
SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 990S WHILE A COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT IT
APPEARS THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NOW RELATIVELY NEUTRAL AND WILL
REMAIN SO UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN 925 TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROP BELOW
FREEZING. UNTIL THEN...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.

THE ONE CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT AS THAT COLD AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS POINT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE A CHANCE ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS...
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH ONLY PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FALLING OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER OVER THE REGION AS THE
EASTERLY SHORTWAVES STOP TRAVERSING THE ALASKA RANGE AND INSTEAD TAKE
A TURN SOUTH TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. A RESIDUAL AREA OF DEFORMATION
WILL BE EVIDENT OVER THE REGION SO HARD TO RULE OUT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. AS
ALWAYS...A CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE MOISTURE AND COLD ALWAYS
SEEMS TO POOL.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA SINCE
THE WEEKEND IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTH...APPROACHING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS BRINGING COLD AIR AND GUSTY
WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALSO SEEM TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED WITH
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS REPORTING PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS
AND WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 60 MPH THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
THE MAGNITUDE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
THE LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ROLLING THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING WITH THE NEXT GALE TO
STORM FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING WAY OUT WEST AND IMPACTING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
TOO CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE SO CONFIDENCE IS DIMINISHED BEYOND
SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...155 170 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAR 12