Gale Warning 198, NWS Anchorage, AK

622 
FZAK51 PAFC 170002
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. A SECOND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND LATE FRI NIGHT AND ADVANCE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 40 KT OUT OF EASTERN BAYS AND
PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 
40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...SE WIND 25 KT.  SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...S WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOWING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CONSENSUS AND
DIVERGENCE DEPENDING ON WEATHER SYSTEM AND TIME.  THE GFS...NAM...EC
SOLUTION FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SYSTEM IS PRETTY GOOD THROUGH 36
HOURS AND THEN SOME DIVERGENCE AS SECONDARY LOW FORMS IN BRISTOL BAY
ON THU.  THESE MODELS ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI EVENING AROUND 972 MB.  SERIOUS
DIVERGENCE OCCURS IN THE GULF FIRST WITH WEAKER SYSTEM EARLY FRI.
THE GFS AND EC KEEP LOW IN BRISTOL BAY LATE THU NIGHT WHILE THE NAM
ELONGATES INTO THE WESTERN GULF...WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
MARINE WINDS FRI IN THE WESTERN GULF.  NIGHT SHIFT WENT WITH THE EC
AND DAY SHIFT IN EAST DOMAIN IS GOING WITH EC AS WELL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS MORNING WE EXPERIENCED FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG A BROAD SWATH FROM KUSKO DELTA EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTH GULF COAST.  AIR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT
PLENTY OF WIND AND SNOW MADE FOR BLIZZARD OR LOW VIZ CONDITIONS IN A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.  SHOW SHOULD BE TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN EAST
WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST ZONES SHOULD BE BECOMING ISOLATED
LATER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH MODEST EAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...PERSISTENT SNOW ALONG THE COAST TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. INLAND AREAS COULD RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO. LOOKS AS YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES OVER KODIAK THU AND ONSHORE OVER KENAI PEN LATE THU AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME MODERATE EAST WINDS
BEGINNING THU EVENING...LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT OVER THE MTNS
HOWEVER.

SOUTHWEST...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW ON THU OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EAST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AGAIN
THU MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT.

BERING REGION...EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW SHOULD SLOWLY FILL THU AND MOVE
TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS WHILE A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND THU MORNING. CONTINUED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH AK PEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN
CENTRAL AL BY THU AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONT AND STORM MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN AL THU AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT SOME E TO NE WINDS WITH THIS
FRONT THU NIGHT.  WOULD ALSO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ONCE AGAIN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP
SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS.  MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD
BE THE ONE THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AL ON THU...IT PERSISTS IN A
WEAKENED STATE OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM TRACK OVER
THE GULF IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUN WITH
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF SUN PM. IN
OTHER WORDS EXPECT NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ IN 125 THROUGH 4 PM
MARINE...GALES 150 155 170 171 172 175 176 185 132 130 138 140 120
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP FEB 12