Gale Warning 196, NWS Anchorage, AK

982 
FZAK52 PAFC 161207
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170300-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY WILL MOVE NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND FRI
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. A DEVELOPING WESTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
NEAR KISKA THU NIGHT AT 964 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 978 MB FRI NIGHT. A 983 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR COLD BAY FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-170300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-170300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-170300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-170300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-170300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-170300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOWING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CONSENSUS AND
DIVERGENCE DEPENDING ON WEATHER SYSTEM AND TIME.  THE GFS...NAM...EC
SOLUTION FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SYSTEM IS PRETTY GOOD THROUGH 36
HOURS AND THEN SOME DIVERGENCE AS SECONDARY LOW FORMS IN BRISTOL BAY
ON THU.  THESE MODELS ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI EVENING AROUND 972 MB.  SERIOUS
DIVERGENCE OCCURS IN THE GULF FIRST WITH WEAKER SYSTEM EARLY FRI.
THE GFS AND EC KEEP LOW IN BRISTOL BAY LATE THU NIGHT WHILE THE NAM
ELONGATES INTO THE WESTERN GULF...WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
MARINE WINDS FRI IN THE WESTERN GULF.  NIGHT SHIFT WENT WITH THE EC
AND DAY SHIFT IN EAST DOMAIN IS GOING WITH EC AS WELL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS MORNING WE EXPERIENCED FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG A BROAD SWATH FROM KUSKO DELTA EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTH GULF COAST.  AIR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT
PLENTY OF WIND AND SNOW MADE FOR BLIZZARD OR LOW VIZ CONDITIONS IN A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.  SHOW SHOULD BE TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN EAST
WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST ZONES SHOULD BE BECOMING ISOLATED
LATER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH MODEST EAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...PERSISTENT SNOW ALONG THE COAST TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. INLAND AREAS COULD RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO. LOOKS AS YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES OVER KODIAK THU AND ONSHORE OVER KENAI PEN LATE THU AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME MODERATE EAST WINDS
BEGINNING THU EVENING...LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT OVER THE MTNS
HOWEVER.

SOUTHWEST...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW ON THU OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EAST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AGAIN
THU MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT.

BERING REGION...EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW SHOULD SLOWLY FILL THU AND MOVE
TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS WHILE A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND THU MORNING. CONTINUED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH AK PEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN
CENTRAL AL BY THU AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONT AND STORM MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN AL THU AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT SOME E TO NE WINDS WITH THIS
FRONT THU NIGHT.  WOULD ALSO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ONCE AGAIN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP
SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS.  MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD
BE THE ONE THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AL ON THU...IT PERSISTS IN A
WEAKENED STATE OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM TRACK OVER
THE GULF IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUN WITH
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF SUN PM. IN
OTHER WORDS EXPECT NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ IN 125 THROUGH 4 PM
MARINE...GALES 150 155 170 171 172 175 176 185 132 130 138 140 120
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP FEB 12