Gale Warning 195, NWS Anchorage, AK

623 
FZAK51 PAFC 160025
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING. A 980 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT TONIGHT MOVES 75 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEIDEN THU EVENING AT 987 MB. A SECOND WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU.

$$

PKZ120-161500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND ALONG THE COAST IN
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-161500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-161500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-161500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 25 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS W. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY NOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-161500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
540 PM AKST TUE FEB 14 2012

UPDATED SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AND WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY...
HAVE ISSUED BLIZZARD WATCHES WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR PORTAGE
VALLEY/TURNAGAIN ARM AND THOMPSON PASS REGIONS. MARGINALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE GULF FRONT
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR BLOWING SNOW FOR ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF DILLINGHAM IN BRISTOL BAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE MID DAY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE BLOWING SNOW
THREAT TO DIMINISH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS EC IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON SOLUTION FOR THE FIRST 42 HOURS BUT THEN THERE IS MAJOR
DIVERGENCE. ALL MODELS KEEP THE ALEUTIAN STORM CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT TO THE NORTHWEST ON
THU...THE NAM IS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE OTHER TWO MODELS BUT NOT THAT
MUCH. THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF THU NIGHT. THE EC SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER OF THE
GROUP WITH A WASHED OUT LOW.  THE GENERAL IDEA IS A 980 MB SOMETHING
LOW STRADDLING 150W WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON.
MAIN IMPACT AT CURRENT TIME IS FOR THE MARINE WINDS AND KODIAK
ISLAND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
MON NIGHT HAS MOVED OFF INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
ALREADY IMPACTING CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH TO THE AK PEN. LOOKS AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN PARKING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND WED BEFORE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST ON
THU. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER PRIBILOFS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW FROM CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
EASTWARD. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER SAME REGION. LITTLE ACTIVITY
IN THE WESTERN AL AND BERING UNTIL THU AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE NO. PAC.

SOUTHWEST...FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON STARTING IN
BRISTOL BAY.  LOOKS AS MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW BUT
SOME MIXED SNOW AND RAIN CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. GFS
INDICATING FONT LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF WED. SOME CLEARING WED NIGHT
AND THU.

SOUTHCENTRAL...GENERALLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FRONT
MOVING INTO COOK INLET THIS EVENING AND ONSHORE NEAR CORDOVA DURING
THE NIGHT. LOOKING FOR SNOW TURNING TO RAIN BY WED MORNING ALONG THE
COAST WITH SNOW INLAND.  KODIAK RAINY THROUGH WED PM WITH A SHORT
BREAK WED NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME LATE THU
MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY IT IS DIFFICULT TO
BE VERY PRECISE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG 50N IS
FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AL
THU LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. CURRENT GFS RUN
SHOWS LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OR EASTERN BERING UNTIL LATER ON
SUN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...195
         BLIZZARD WATCH...125 131
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...155 161
MARINE...STORM...130 172
         GALE...120 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 175 179 180 351
                352 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP/JAM FEB 12