Gale Warning 109, NWS Anchorage, AK

538 
FZAK51 PAFC 260029
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261500-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY AND
WEAKENS TO 998 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ120-261500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT SOUTH AND WEST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-261500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT E OF SEAL ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-261500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR
WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-261500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 17 FT EXCEPT 9 FT W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NORTH WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT W WIND 25 KT SOUTH END OF THE
INLET. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT W WIND 20 KT SOUTH END OF THE
INLET. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ141-261500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
RUN. THERE IS NO STRONG PREFERENCE OF ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER THOUGH
THE NAM HAS BETTER DETAIL ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36
HOURS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
AN UPPER RIDGE LIES ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND THE WESTERN MAINLAND. A LARGE COMPLEX LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA COVERS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF WILL MERGE INTO A SINGLE CENTER NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE GULF TONIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE
GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS AROUND KODIAK
ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA...THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING
SEA AND ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY
AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS THE BERING FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
MARINE...STORMS 130 132 150
         GALES 120 127 128 129 138 140 150 155 160 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 12