Freezing Rain Advisory 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
620 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
AND MUCH OF THE BERING. WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO GALE STRENGTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. FURTHER EAST...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION. WITH SOUTH CENTRAL UNDER A TRANSITIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN...TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING
MOVING IN...CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED WHICH HAS LIMITED PATCHY FOG.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...HOWEVER THE NAM BEGINS TO LAG THE FRONT BEHIND AFTER THE FIRST
24 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED FOR UPDATING THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HPC DATA WAS ALSO USED TO INFLUENCE THE LONG
TERM GRIDS.

THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE
BERING OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEAST AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING. GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TODAY. THIS STORM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING
AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THE LOW CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THEN TAKE A
SOUTHERN TURN TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE GULF THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AND THIS STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE THIS MORNING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW. GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL END TOMORROW AS THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WEATHER FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BRISTOL BAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL BE MOST
SEVERE TONIGHT AS IT STRENGTHENS INTO THE BERING. HIGH WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS WIND
GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH ARE EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
BERING IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM AND USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM THAT IMPACTS THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE GULF
WILL PUSH EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED
BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND 172 175 176.
         STORMS 170.
         GALES 127 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KH NOV 12