Brisk Wind Advisory 84, NWS Anchorage, AK

976 
FZAK52 PAFC 281145
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290300-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK AND A 993 MB LOW 390 NM SOUTH
OF COLD BAY WILL MERGE INTO A SINGLE 998 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK CITY SAT EVENING THEN DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-290300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-290300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-290300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-290300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-290300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-290300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT FRI APR 27 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NAM OUTLIER BEYOND 48 HOURS. GFS
AND EC KEEP ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW SOUTH OF ALASKA PENINSULA
CONSOLIDATED WHILE NAM SPLITS IT BETWEEN THE PARENT AND A TRIPLE
POINT LOW. GFS SOLUTION PREFERRED FOR ITS CONSISTENCY WITH HPC
GUIDANCE AND WITH ITSELF.

.UPPER LEVELS...
CUT OFF UPPER LOW CENTER PROGGED TO WEAKEN THROUGH 60 HOURS AS IT
MIGRATES TO JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN CANADA AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN RUSSIAN AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A 979 MB STACKED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN
TO 996 MB AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 36
HOURS. A WEAK WARM OCCLUSION EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE FRONT WILL SWING NORTH TODAY INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA THEN DISSIPATE ALONG THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM...THE KNIK
VALLEY AND OTHER CHANNELED AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT. WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH BY SUNDAY MORNING ONCE THE FRONT
DISSIPATES.

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS
THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED...BUT COULD BE MIXED
WITH SNOW AT TIMES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN BERING LATE
TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE
TOMORROW. THICKENING MARINE LATER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS STRUGGLING WITH STRENGTH AND POSITION OF PRIMARY LOW CENTER
BEYOND 36 HOURS...BUT DO AGREE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE ENCOMPASSING SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR INLAND AREAS. ALONG
THE COASTS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB APR 12