Brisk Wind Advisory 80, NWS Anchorage, AK

685 
FZAK52 PAFC 211148
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220300-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 175 NM SOUTH OF ATTU INTENSIFIES TO 982 MB SUN MORNING
50 NM NORTH OF ADAK AND THEN WEAKENS TO 990 MB SUN NIGHT 50 NM WEST
OF DUTCH HARBOR.
$$

PKZ150-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-220300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-220300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-220300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT BERING
SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 45 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-220300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-220300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 20 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND
PART OF THE STATE IS WEAK TODAY AS THE PATTERN IS SHIFTING. THERE IS
A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS. THERE IS ALSO A PRONOUNCED JET
STREAM RUNNING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE BERING SEA
THAT TURNS SHARPLY OVER BRISTOL BAY AS IT HEADS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW THAT IS SOUTH OF THE GULF. SO EVEN THOUGH THE MAINLAND
PORTION OF THE STATE HAS LIGHT FLOW THERE ARE MUCH STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS IN THE BERING SEA WHICH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE MAINLAND
PART OF THE STATE AS THE PATTEN PROGRESSES.
AT THE SURFACE THE IS A COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF WHICH IS EXTENDING A
TROUGH INTO THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THIS IS BRINGING
GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...WHICH
TURN MORE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BUT WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU MOVES TO NEAR
KISKA TOMORROW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING QUITE WELL AND EVEN THE GFS HAS
COME IN LINE WITH THE OTHER ONES IN REGARDS TO THE LARGE LOW THAT
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA. STILL PREFERRED THE ECMWF OVERALL
AND THE NAM WAS ALSO USED TO FILL IN DETAIL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND WILL SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS.
THE BIG EXCEPTION WILL BE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHICH WILL REMAIN UNDER
LOW STRATUS WITH SOME SNOW FLURRIES AS NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE ICE
PACK KEEP THAT AREA CONSIDERABLE COLDER.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE BERING
SEA COAST WHILE THE PACIFIC SIDE WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR INTO SATURDAY.
THE LARGE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING WARMER
AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH AFTER THE LOW MOVES BY. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LARGE LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD BIT OF CLEARING OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 12