Brisk Wind Advisory 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

598 
FZAK52 PAFC 091241 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

CORRECTED ZONE 172

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100300-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1013 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO 300 NM WEST OF
SAINT PAUL ISLAND SAT NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL BERING WILL DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN BERING
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 17
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS TO
45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-100300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-100300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT BERING SIDE...S 25 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-100300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-100300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

945 
FZAK52 PAFC 100034
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101500-
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL BERING WILL DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN BERING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 1005 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 180 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE 80 NM SOUTH OF ADAK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 972 MB MOVES TO 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT...GUSTING TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT...GUSTING TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT...GUSTING TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...GUSTING TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT...GUSTING TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...GUSTING TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-101500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-101500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-101500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 35 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 30 KT
BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...VARIABLE 
WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-101500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-101500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST THU MAR 8 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO LARGE AND FAST MOVING SYSTEMS ARE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ALASKA TODAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE ROTATING AROUND A BROAD TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. UNDER THIS TROUGH...A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND STRATUS CAN BE FOUND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING. THE FIRST OF THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAS FULLY
OCCLUDED AND IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE IS SPREADING SNOW NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. OUT WEST...A FAST MOVING
LOW IS CROSSING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOFS AS WELL AS REDUCING VISIBILITY IN BLOWING
SNOW AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ALL OF THE MAJOR
FEATURES. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z SOLUTIONS ARE LEADING TO
SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...IT APPEARS
THAT THE ECMWF INITIALIZES BEST ON THE MAIN CIRCULATION AND THE
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW. LIKEWISE OUT WEST THE 12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
INITIALIZATION...BEYOND 24 HOURS THE MODELS ARE ALL PAINTING A VERY
SIMILAR PICTURE THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A FEW
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM OUT WEST. THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LEND ITSELF MORE TO A SOUTHERN TRACK AND WEAKER LOW
THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE DEPICTING. THE MID TO LONG RANGE
FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...FORECAST ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FOG
DISSIPATING AROUND COOK INLET AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH TOWARD
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SNOW IS FALLING IN CORDOVA AND THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW...SNOWFALL TOTALS IN CORDOVA COULD BE A
BIT HEFTIER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE TRENDED HIGHER AMOUNTS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT.

LIKEWISE IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...NO ADVISORY IS EXPECTED IN THE
SPARSELY POPULATED REGION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE LOW DENSITY SNOW BEGINS TO PILE UP MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED.

CLEAR SKIES FROM COOK INLET UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY PREVAILING UNDER
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW. THE CHALLENGE FOR
TONIGHTS FORECAST WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG RETURNING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OVER THE CHUGACH RANGE TOWARD PALMER AND ANCHORAGE LATE
THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL NOT QUITE REACH KENAI SO FOG IS A POSSIBILITY
FURTHER DOWN THE INLET.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE BROAD TROUGH STAYS IN PLACE WHILE A SERIES
OF WEAK LOWS ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THAT SET UP BUT AT THE MOMENT THERE
ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF A PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE
FEATURE THAT WOULD CREATE THE NECESSARY LIFT. SO FOR THE TIME
BEING...EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
COASTAL AREAS...JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ANCHORAGE
AND PALMER.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRATUS AND FLURRIES HANGING TOUGH OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. A DRYING TREND SHOULD BE IN PLACE BUT THE
SOUTHWEST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
A STRONG INVERSION SO ANY CLEARING THAT OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN WITH CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SO PERSISTENCE IS THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER IS HAPPENING OUT
WEST WITH THE RAPIDLY MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEASTERLY OFF OF THE ICE EDGE. STEADY SNOW
AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL GIVE WAY TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
UNDER THE COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES BRINGING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CHAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OF THE CHAIN AND WILL FOLLOW AN
EASTERLY TRACK AS IT JUST SKIRTS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATER THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GALES ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 131 181
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 155 165 179 411 412 414
         GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB MAR 12