Brisk Wind Advisory 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

701 
FZAK52 PAFC 091244
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100300-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 969 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR COLD BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. A 963 MB LOW 350 NM WEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT 972 MB FRI NIGHT. A 961 MB LOW 575 NM SOUTH OF
ATKA THU EVENING WILL MOVE TO 135 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY AT 954 MB FRI
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 26 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT S 40 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 17 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND
35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 16 FT
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-100300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE 
FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
BUILDING TO 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-100300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 35 KT NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 25 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 30 KT
BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...E WIND 15 KT
BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-100300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-100300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE 
FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS WITH A LOW THAT WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST SYSTEM...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND THE STRONGEST SURFACE LOW AT AROUND 980 MB. THE 09/00Z ECMWF
TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FROM ITS 08/12Z RUN...BUT HAS NOT
BITTEN OFF COMPLETELY. THROUGH THURSDAY...THE NAM WAS MAINLY USED AS
GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS USED FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HPC GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF WERE USED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA..A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE BERING SEA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES KEEPS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK LOWS AFFECTING THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE
AREA. IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THERE IS A TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT BEING CAPTURED WELL BY THE
MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF IS GOING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. ANCHORAGE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY DOWNSLOPE WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT...SO OTHER THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL SHOULD REMAIN DRY. STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT
TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE UPPER HILLSIDE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW...AND
DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK...ANCHORAGE COULD EITHER GET NO SNOW OR A
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. THIS IS A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY. WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS STORM. THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARMER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THIS AREA WILL BE REMAIN ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS MOVING THROUGH. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND WILL SOON BE ENDING IN THE
PRIBILOFS. THEREFORE WE HAVE EXPIRED THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS...BUT WILL LET THE PRIBILOFS WARNING CONTINUE A BIT
LONGER...LIKELY LETTING IT EXPIRE AT 9AM. ALSO...WITH ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...BLIZZARD CONDITION ARE EXPECTED
FOR THAT AREA. A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RIDGE THAT HAS REMAINED STATIONARY OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MAINLAND ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AND BY FRIDAY
EVENING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE PRIMARILY ZONAL. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...191 195
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 127 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160
                        170 171  172 175 176 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE