Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

914 
WGAK48 PAFC 210112
FLWAFC

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

AKZ131-211800-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120921T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
512 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INCLUDING VALDEZ

* UNTIL 1000 AM AKDT FRIDAY

2-4 INCHES OR RAIN WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE VALDEZ AREA. STREAMS DRAINING INTO 
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SHOULD RISE SHARPLY OVERNIGHT TO NEAR BANKFULL 
OR MINOR FLOOD LEVELS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:
RAPID WATER LEVEL INCREASES
EROSION AND URBAN DRAINAGE PROBLEMS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 6131 14618 6100 14591 6109 14680 6135 14691

$$

651 
WGAK48 PAFC 211743
FLWAFC

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
943 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

AKZ131-220200-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120922T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
943 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INCLUDING VALDEZ

* UNTIL 600 PM AKDT FRIDAY

FLOOD WATERS FROM THE LOWE RIVER CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE RICHARDSON 
HIGHWAY EAST OF VALDEZ. THE HIGHWAY IS CURRENTLY CLOSED. AN 
ADDITIONAL INCH OR MORE OF RAIN WILL FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY DELAY THE FALL OF RIVER LEVELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN 
REPORTED. STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT 
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY 
PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 6131 14618 6100 14591 6109 14680 6135 14691

$$

DIXON

898 
WGAK48 PAFC 220143
FLWAFC

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
543 PM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

AKZ131-230600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120923T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
543 PM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
   INCLUDING VALDEZ

* UNTIL 1000 PM AKDT SATURDAY

*FLOOD WATERS FROM THE LOWE RIVER CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE RICHARDSON 
HIGHWAY EAST OF VALDEZ.  THE HIGHWAY IS CURRENTLY CLOSED FROM
MILEPOST 12 TO MILEPOST 16 DUE TO HIGH WATER LEVELS AT THE BRIDGE.  
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALDEZ AREA THIS WEEKEND. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OVER 
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. THESE RAINS WILL DELAY 
THE FALL OF RIVER LEVELS. 

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 6131 14618 6100 14591 6109 14680 6135 14691

$$

DS/BCB

111 
WGAK88 PAFC 230034
FLSAFC

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

AKZ131-230040-
/O.CAN.PAFC.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120923T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AK-
434 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM 
SOUND INCLUDING VALDEZ...

*THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY BETWEEN MILEPOSTS 12 AND 16 HAS BEEN 
REOPENED. WATER LEVELS ON STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING BUT 
WILL REMAIN NEAR BANKFULL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FURTHER FLOODING 
IS EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 6131 14618 6100 14591 6109 14680 6135 14691

$$

RMC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 17 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENCOMPASSES THE BERING AND DIGS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. TO THE
EAST...A RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN
CANADA. AS THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INTENSIFY AND HELP TO STREAM TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP BENEATH THE JET THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ONSHORE NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TOMORROW MORNING.  THIS
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW AND SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND ALSO HELP TO INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION TOMORROW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF A LOW THAT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN CURRENT MODELS IS
ENOUGH THAT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO A BLEND OF THESE MODELS WAS USED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
SUPPORTED STEADY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BUT WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY TOMORROW
MORNING AS A LOW PROGRESSES INLAND NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THE PEAK OF THIS
EVENT WILL BE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER...A
FEW GUSTS MAY REACH THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE
TROPICS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT MUCH OF
THE REGION. SINCE SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED AND SEVERAL STREAMS ARE
NEAR BANKFULL...LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF KODIAK
ISLAND. AS A RESULT...GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN WILL IMPACT THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
GENERALLY WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE IMPACTING THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS TODAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A MORE WELL DEVELOPED LOW WILL
IMPACT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE IT DIVES SOUTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE BERING AND
SUPPORT A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE BERING AND GULF
COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BY
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...101
         FLOOD WARNING...135
         FLOOD WATCH...125 131 145
MARINE...STORM...120 125
         GALE...129 130 132 140 141 150 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN SEP 12