Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Aberdeen, SD

329 
WWUS43 KABR 222152
WSWABR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
352 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...

.A STRONG AND COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SOME VIGOROUS LIFT AND FOCUS TO GENERATE A CONCENTRATED NARROW
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT PERSISTING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THE PLACEMENT OF
THIS NARROW BAND REMAINS IN QUESTION. IT COULD SET UP ANYWHERE
ALONG OR UP TO TWENTY-FIVE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM MOUND
CITY SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD TO TULARE SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIX OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW WITHIN THIS NARROW
BAND OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY MARKEDLY ABOVE FREEZING WILL
LIKELY MAKE THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING BEFORE SEEING A CHANGE OVER TO
HEAVY WET SNOW LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SDZ021-222300-
/O.CAN.KABR.WS.A.0002.120223T0600Z-120223T1800Z/
GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MILBANK
352 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. 

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

SDZ009-010-016>019-022-037-231000-
/O.UPG.KABR.WS.A.0002.120223T0600Z-120223T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KABR.WS.W.0001.120223T0300Z-120223T1800Z/
WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-HAMLIN-HAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOBRIDGE...IPSWICH...GETTYSBURG...
FAULKTON...REDFIELD...CLARK...CASTLEWOOD...MILLER
352 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...RAIN THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
  SNOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND PERSIST
  THROUGH AT LEAST NOON CST ON THURSDAY.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
  RIVER COULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
  INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDED PRECIPITATION
  IS EXPECTED TO FALL...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH.
  HOWEVER VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY DROP TO ONE
  QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE 
  LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
  ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE
  OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING IN SNOW AS WELL AS SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
  HIGHLIGHTED AREA AS HIGH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR LATE TONIGHT
  INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

SDZ004>006-011-020-023-036-231000-
/O.UPG.KABR.WS.A.0002.120223T0600Z-120223T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KABR.WW.Y.0003.120223T0300Z-120223T1800Z/
CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-DAY-CODINGTON-DEUEL-HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HERREID...EUREKA...ABERDEEN...WEBSTER...
WATERTOWN...CLEAR LAKE...HIGHMORE
352 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SET UP BETWEEN
  9 PM CST AND NOON CST ON THURSDAY. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
  DAKOTA PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
  BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY LATE IN THE EVENING. FURTHER
  EAST WHERE THE ADVISORY COVERS A PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER
  VALLEY UP ONTO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL
  SNOW AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
  RIVER COULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
  INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDED
  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT
  INCREASE MUCH. HOWEVER VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
  DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE 
  LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

SDZ003-015-034-035-051-231000-
/O.NEW.KABR.WW.Y.0003.120223T0300Z-120223T1800Z/
CORSON-DEWEY-SULLY-HUGHES-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCLAUGHLIN...TIMBER LAKE...ONIDA...
PIERRE...FORT THOMPSON
352 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 /252 PM MST WED FEB 22 2012/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
THIS EVENING TO NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST /8
PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY.

* TIMING...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SET UP BETWEEN
  9 PM CST AND NOON CST ON THURSDAY. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
  DAKOTA PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
  BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY LATE IN THE EVENING. FURTHER
  EAST WHERE THE ADVISORY COVERS A PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER
  VALLEY UP ONTO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL
  SNOW AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
  RIVER COULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
  INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDED
  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT
  INCREASE MUCH. HOWEVER VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
  DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE 
  LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

DORN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
913 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

.UPDATE...
FIRST QUICK UPDATE BEING SENT OFF THIS MORNING TO COVER THIS
RATHER LOCALIZED FEATURE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG EITHER ACCOMPANYING A
BAND OF IFR LOW STRATUS OR BEING LOW STRATUS ACTUALLY LOWERING TO
THE GROUND TO BECOME DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL UPDATES
FORTHCOMING AS NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES/WX/POPS AND WINDS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE.

AS OF 8Z...A NARROW BAND OF WAA PCPN IS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE VERY LIGHT PCPN WAS OBSERVED IN KPIR/KMBG...THIS PCPN BAND
HAS WEAKENED. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH LIGHT RADAR ECHOES OVER EXTREME WESTERN SD. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT STILL LOCATED OVER ALBERTA...WILL
REDUCE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LUCKILY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO BE THE DOMINANT
P-TYPE. HOWEVER THE P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR CAA
TO SURGE INTO THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAYS AS COLD AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSES RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCT
SNOW SHOWERS.

COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S...TO THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY KEEPING
 THE REGION HIGH AND DRY. MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE SURFACE SYSTEM
EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS ON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT
RUN TO RUN ON PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW. 00Z RUNS OF EC/GFS ARE
ACTUALLY IN SOME AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT IF NOT SPEED OF SYSTEM.
GFS...AS USUAL...IS FASTER TO MOVE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THAN THE
ECMWF. HOWEVER THEY BOTH PLACE THE SFC LOW IN THE NW IA "SWEET
SPOT" WHICH WOULD MEAN A LOT MORE SNOW AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR THIS CWA AS WE GET WRAPAROUND PRECIP...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH TO SAY THE
LEAST. DID INCREASE WINDS ABOVE CONSENSUS MODEL ON SUN/MON WITH
THIS IN MIND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AGAIN BEHIND THIS POTENT
LOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KABR TERMINAL WITH LIFR AND VLIFR
CIGS AND VISBIES. THIS SHOULD BE A RATHER SHORT-LIVED SUB-VFR WX
PHENOM THIS MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL NOT REDUCE VSBYS. HOWEVER THERE IS A LIGHT BAND BETWEEN
KMBG AND KABR CURRENTLY THAT HAS SOME BKN CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2500
FT SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR KABR FROM 12Z - 14Z. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN AS ALL RAIN FOR MOST TAF SITES...BUT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES KATY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS ALL SNOW. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS WAVE TO 15 TO
25 KTS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE/DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-231130-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
525 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012 /425 AM MST WED FEB 22 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MAJOR WINTER STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SD