Wind Advisory 18, NWS Aberdeen, SD

072 
WWUS73 KABR 271524
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1024 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

...WIND ADIVISORY CANCELLED...

.SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH TODAY REAMINING BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-271630-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-120428T0100Z/
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCLAUGHLIN...HERREID...EUREKA...
MOBRIDGE...IPSWICH...TIMBER LAKE...GETTYSBURG...FAULKTON...
FORT PIERRE...ONIDA...PIERRE...HIGHMORE...MILLER...MURDO...
PRESHO...FORT THOMPSON
1024 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 /924 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 



$$

MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

.UPDATE...

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

LIMITED CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS CONGEALED INTO A BROADER AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN BETWEEN PIERRE AND HURON. EASTWARD PROPAGATION HAS BEEN
HAMPERED BY CONTINUOUS FLOW OF DRY AIR. WINDS HAVE ALSO NOT
RESPONDED AS LOW INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER PREVIOUS FORECAST INCREASE
OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE REASONABLE SOLUTION. SOME
LOCATIONS ARE CLOSE TO REACHING LOWS IN RAIN COOLED AIR...SETTLING
RIGHT AROUND LOW/MID 40S...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THEM TO FALL MUCH
LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THERE ARE SEVERAL CHALLENGES FACING THE SHORT TERM AND WILL
ADDRESS THEM BELOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS AIDING
IN BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO
DEFLECT THE INCREASING LLM WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. BY 6Z TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED
OVER COLORADO WITH MOISTURE FINALLY BEGINNING TO ADVECT TOWARD THE
EASTERN CWA. DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD OVER COME THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS RESULT IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM COLORADO
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS A STRONGER H5
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WITH
THE NAM/GEM BEING FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MT...AND THE GFS
SOUTH...OR OVER WESTERN SD. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THESE MODELS
WHICH WOULD SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT LOWERING
POPS TO SCHC IN THE SW CWA...BUT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC POP FOR NOW.

WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY MAY REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE WESTERN CWA IS SHOWING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO WINDS
BEING MARGINAL. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND THE NIGHT
SHIFT MAY CONSIDER AN ADV AT THAT TIME.

THE LAST ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT SNOW OCCURS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CAA AND A
SMALL SNOW GROWTH REGION...ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEM HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
THUS HAVE REMOVED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. THE PERIOD
BEGINS SUNDAY WITH A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MT. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. WITH
THE SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD UP. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
SLOWLY EAST. SURPRISINGLY...ALL THREE MODELS (GFS...EC...GEM) ALL
SHOW A NARROW AREA OF QPF ALONG THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING
EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. HAVE IN DECENT CHANCES FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NEARLY
ZONAL WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE IN MANY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
50S TO THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIGHT RAIN NEAR KMBG/KABR/KATY BUT STILL MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS. A
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z WILL LOWERS CIGS TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBY FOR KABR...WHILE KPIR REMAINS IN A BREAK
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
BE THE MORE CONSISTENT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW AT 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
453 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-271000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
453 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012 /353 AM MDT THU APR 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PARKIN