Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Aberdeen, SD

014 
WWUS53 KABR 132311
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
611 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

SDC085-132321-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-120613T2330Z/
LYMAN SD-
611 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LYMAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4375 9959 4380 9937 4377 9940 4371 9939
      4368 9945 4367 9945 4366 9937 4363 9933
      4361 9934 4358 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 255DEG 16KT 4371 9933

$$
WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN MONTANA...MAKING
ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. THIS TROUGH/COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST...ENTERING WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY
00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE SLOW TO RESPOND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENOUGH TO
HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT. NAM ML CAPE VALUES ARE
STILL PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 7 TO 9 C/KM ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL COME TOGETHER WITH A STRONG 50 KT LLJ TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND
WIND...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE WIND...SINCE MODEL 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. A HIGH SHEAR...HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
BE INDICATIVE OF A BOWING LINE OF STORMS...HOWEVER THE LIMITING
FACTOR TONIGHT MAY BE THE CAPE...WHICH IS ON THE WEAKER END.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE CWA...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION FRIDAY. MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT MAY BE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF WAVES/VORTS IS
MIDDLING AT BEST. THEREFORE TOOK MORE OF A GFS ENSEMBLE APPROACH
TO POPS/WX AND TRIED TO MINIMIZE MENTION WHERE THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THAT SAID MOST
PERIODS STILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION DUE TO
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE MODEL BLEND LOOKED
FINE FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER A COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL IN THE VCNTY OF THE ND/SD BORDER LATE
TNT. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND COULD CAUSE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KMBG/KABR TERMINALS. PATCHY MVFR
CIGS COULD FOLLOW ANY PCPN/STORMS...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
344 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-142045-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
344 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012 /244 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY ALONG THIS FRONT...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. STORMS
WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 212. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

SERR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
540 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

SDZ048-132315-
LYMAN-
540 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
LYMAN COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 536 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAMILL...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHAMBERLAIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE ADVISED
COUNTY..

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

WISE