Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
143 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 06Z TAFS.

A COUPLE OF SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOXES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
CWA WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WATCH BOX 366 AND 367 ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 AM AND 8 AM RESPECTIVELY. HAVE A COUPLE OF LINEAR
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HAIL AS LARGE AS 2
INCHES AND WINDS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE CWA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
30 TO 40 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS POINTING RIGHT INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRIDS AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH
READINGS HAVING REACHED THE LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MOISTURE POOLING IS EVIDENT RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH LIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AT PIR AND MBG. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS ABOUT
3000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH NOT MUCH OF A CAP LEFT
AT ALL. STILL A BIT OF A CAP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...SOME OF WHICH IS BECOMING A BIT CONGESTED. NO ECHOES
NOTED ON RADAR AS OF THIS WRITING...NOR SEEING ANYTHING ALOFT ON
UPPER ELEVATION CUTS. SHEAR IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AND MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN BEST UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
REACHES THE AREA AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. INTERESTING TO
NOTE A FEW OF THE HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE BLOWING UP A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE CURRENT CUMULUS FIELD RESIDES. NOT SO SURE
ABOUT THIS SOLUTION THOUGH BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO
SEE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AS UPPER JET ENERGY AND SHORTWAVE GET
CLOSER.

THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF DRASTICALLY BY
THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT FINALLY MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

FOR MONDAY...WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DOESNT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPPER TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS. NOT MUCH AT ALL FOR CAPE VALUES
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE REGION WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW...AND
WITH THEM COMES THE MODEL INTENSITY AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL
JET SETS UP...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.
BY THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN
CONUS...PLACING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THE REGION THURSDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF
MOISTURE AND GET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND
4000-5000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FROM VISBY REDUCTION IN
HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO
BE ANTICIPATED. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL FOUR TERMINALS BY
MID DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME FORM OF BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-100915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
403 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012 /303 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TODAY. IF A STORM DID MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING WEST RIVER AND
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS LESS OF A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 PM     HAIL             5 SE HAYES              44.33N 100.95W
06/09/2012  E2.00 INCH       STANLEY            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200188

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1202 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 PM     HAIL             7 E HAYES               44.37N 100.89W
06/09/2012  E1.00 INCH       STANLEY            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200189

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW MISSION RIDGE      44.74N 100.86W
06/10/2012  M80 MPH          STANLEY            SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200190

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     HAIL             COW CREEK REC AREA      44.56N 100.50W
06/10/2012  E1.75 INCH       SULLY              SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200191

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
128 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     HAIL             2 SSW OVERLOOK REC AREA 44.44N 100.40W
06/10/2012  E1.75 INCH       STANLEY            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200192

CONNELLY