Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Aberdeen, SD

668 
WWUS53 KABR 190210
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
910 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

SDC075-117-190220-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-120519T0215Z/
JONES SD-STANLEY SD-
910 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN STANLEY AND
WESTERN JONES COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM CDT/815 PM MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4382 10093 4381 10097 4384 10100 4383 10103
      4388 10108 4398 10108 4405 10105 4416 10106
      4417 10118 4451 10117 4458 10114 4407 10056
      4378 10089
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 222DEG 26KT 4431 10088

$$
WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.UPDATE...
TSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR
NEAR THE SFC. RADAR IS STARTING TO FILL IN WITH SOME STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE CWA FROM THE WEST. LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT 3 HRS IN
THE WEST AND IN THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 6 HRS. STILL BELIEVE THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING
WITH THE FRONT AS THE FOCUS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE AS WELL.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED AT AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER EXTENT OF THE MISSOURI...WHILE FARTHER
NORTHWEST A COOLER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN. CONVECTION HAS ALSO
BEGUN TO FIRE UPSTREAM...BUT MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS CAPPED AT
ABOUT 50-100 J/KG. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST WITH CONTINUED
HEATING...AIRMASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...HOWEVER THAT IS
PREDICATED BY GUIDANCE BRINGING IN MID 50 DEWPOINTS WHICH SEEMS A
BIT OF A REACH GIVEN DRY AIRMASS AND SOILS. DESPITE THIS
BARRIER...COULD SEE A FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS WEST RIVER MANAGE
TO WORK INTO WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS WITH CLOUD BASES AOA 9KFT SUGGEST A THREAT FOR
MICROBURST WINDS...OTHERWISE THE SEVERE THREAT IS FAIRLY LIMITED.
AS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...BEST FORCING WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET FORCING WILL
BE FOCUSED NORTH/EAST...AND THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS. SATURDAY...WITH LOW OVER
THE JAMES VALLEY AND SISSETON HILLS...MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...SO ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL ONLY SEE
WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION. WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE
TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. DRY AIR INFILTRATES FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SUPPORT SOME
SHALLOW PEAK HEATING CU.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
EARLY MONDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL THEN SWING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH
A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WEATHER WILL BE
FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO COME TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY WITH GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MOVES IN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
BY 03Z OR SO...WITH KMBG THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO BE AFFECTED
BY A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 5Z AND 8Z. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KABR IN
THE MORNING...BUT VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE BIGGEST
THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
416 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-190930-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
416 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012 /316 AM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR. A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SD