Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Aberdeen, SD

228 
WWUS53 KABR 032219
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
519 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

SDC013-045-089-032245-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-120803T2245Z/
MCPHERSON SD-EDMUNDS SD-BROWN SD-
519 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
BROWN...NORTHEASTERN EDMUNDS AND SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONG
LAKE COLONY...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF IPSWICH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN EDMUNDS...SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON AND WEST CENTRAL BROWN
COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKES IN NORTH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...GET OUT OF THE 
WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. IF YOU CAN HEAR 
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. IN 
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN ON 
SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. 
DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

&&

LAT...LON 4535 9899 4562 9903 4583 9861 4566 9852
      4551 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 231DEG 43KT 4561 9877
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
DORN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
242 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
POTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. ACCORDING TO 19Z SFC OBS...IT HAS PASSED
THROUGH BIS AND PHP...BUT NOT QUITE TO MBG YET. FIRST STORMS HAVE
FIRED NEAR MBG WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED. SVR WATCH 553 WAS
RECENTLY ISSUED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM CDT. SVR PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SUPERCELLS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO SOME SORT OF A LINEAR SYSTEM
AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE CWA. TORNADO PARAMETERS
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH EAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S. ALSO...WITH THE COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING...AND
THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXISTS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCES IN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
SURFACE HIGH THEN SETTLES INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET CONDITIONS AND COOL LOWS FOR
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...AND FAVORED
COOL SPOTS MAY EVEN SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FROM WHAT CAN BE GLEANED FROM AVAILABLE MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS
THAT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS NEEDED RIGHT NOW FOR THE EXTENDED. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STARTS OUT POSITIONED WEST OF THIS CWA BACK
OVER THE ROCKIES AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER A SEVERAL DAY
PERIOD...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CWA POSITIONED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS /NW FLOW ALOFT/...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR
COLD FROPAS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK-TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS TRY TO
WORK DOWN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...ONE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN A SECOND FROPA TRIES TO WORK DOWN INTO THIS AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. WILL TRY AND MIGRATE POPS TO THOSE TIME PERIODS AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE COOLEST READINGS DO APPEAR TO SHOW UP
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY TREND WARMER RIGHT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...WHENEVER THE SECOND /ILL-TIMED/ COLD
FROPA GETS DOWN THROUGH THIS CWA LATE IN THE WEEK...IT SHOULD
BRING A BIT OF RELIEF TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR
SLOWLY SINKING INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES IN THE OUT PERIODS WILL
VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING KABR AND KATY. HEAVY RAIN...RATHER LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO
COULD OCCUR NEAR OR WITHIN AIRPORT AIRSPACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FROPA WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE...WHILE WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
414 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-040915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
414 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012 /314 AM MDT FRI AUG 3 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY ON...BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

SERR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
402 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             BRENTWOOD COLONY        45.12N  99.31W
08/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       FAULK              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200344

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
404 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             6 W BOWDLE              45.45N  99.78W
08/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       WALWORTH           SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON HIGHWAY 12 WEST OF BOWDLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200345

TROGDON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
405 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             9 W BOWDLE              45.45N  99.84W
08/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       WALWORTH           SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200346

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
407 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW BOWDLE             45.47N  99.69W
08/03/2012  E50 MPH          EDMUNDS            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZED
            HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200347

TROGDON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
428 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             10 S BOWDLE             45.31N  99.66W
08/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       EDMUNDS            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200348

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
433 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             7 WSW ROSCOE            45.40N  99.46W
08/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       EDMUNDS            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200349

TROGDON