Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Aberdeen, SD

557 
WWUS53 KABR 292251
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
551 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

SDC021-041-045-089-107-129-292301-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-120729T2330Z/
POTTER SD-MCPHERSON SD-EDMUNDS SD-DEWEY SD-CAMPBELL SD-WALWORTH SD-
551 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WALWORTH...SOUTHEASTERN
CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN DEWEY...NORTHWESTERN EDMUNDS...MCPHERSON AND
NORTH CENTRAL POTTER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4594 9880 4559 9931 4522 9993 4524 10073
      4560 10014 4595 9960 4595 9885
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 270DEG 30KT 4592 9921 4560 9972
          4530 10023

$$
WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
314 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SURFACE OBS SHOW THE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
KMOT TO KHEI TO KSHR...AND CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST.
ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA. THIS ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND HELP TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE
DECENT JET LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL. THE SPC ANALYSIS PAGE IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 500-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA COUNTIES...AS WELL MID LEVEL LASE
RATES RANGING FROM 7.5 TO 8 C/KM. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40
KTS WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG...WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BOTH A POSSIBLE THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...SO DID DROP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WHAT WE HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN FORECASTING...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH. THE NAM TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN
RESPONSE TO WAA ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER IT IS THE OUTLIER
FOR NOW...SO NO POPS WERE ADDED TO THE GRIDS. THEN NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER
SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE PLAINS
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 20S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN OVER THE WEEKEND...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...INCLUDING
KMBG...BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY WITH BOTH ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-300900-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-
FAULK-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 /250 AM MDT SUN JUL 29 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-300900-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-
HAMLIN-DEUEL-
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
503 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     LITTLE EAGLE            45.68N 100.80W
07/29/2012  M70 MPH          CORSON             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED 70 MPH WINDS WHICH SNAPPED A
            TREE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200310

TROGDON