Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
306 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

CONVECTIVE REMNANT SHADING THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE CAP IS
WEAKER...AND AT 95/75 JAMESTOWN MLCAPE RUNNING AROUND 5K J/KG.
AIDED BY A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET...MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN NORTH DAKOTA WOULD POSSIBLY DRIFT INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
LOW POPS INTO SATURDAY WITH REMNANT CONVECTION DEPARTING THE CWA
EARLY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A SURFACE
FRONT...CROSSING MOST OF THE CWA BY MID DAY. WARMER AIR REMAINS
ALOFT HOWEVER...SO SHOULD EASILY MIX INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S AGAIN. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.  ANOTHER WEAK...ELEVATED WAVE WILL PROGRESS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANTICIPATE LOWER COVERAGE OF WEAK ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS INDICATED IN BUFKIT PROFILES. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO COOL APPRECIABLY AS HIGH NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY AM...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT
ADVISORY SATURDAY...THOUGH FAR SOUTH AND WEST COUNTIES WILL
APPROACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE EXTENDED PORTION CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CHANGING WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SUPPRESSING A CENTRAL US RIDGE. THESE SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING A LOW PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE PAC NW MOVES OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE SITUATED
NORTH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. THAT SAID...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER KMBG
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SPORADIC WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE WILL
LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-
     HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
433 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-200945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
433 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012 /333 AM MDT THU JUL 19 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE
FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT WITH OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HEAT WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL AGAIN RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SERR