Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Aberdeen, SD

121 
WWUS53 KABR 180725
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
225 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

SDC115-180745-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-120718T0745Z/
SPINK SD-
225 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
SPINK COUNTY UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 221 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
NORTHVILLE...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF REDFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MELLETTE AROUND 235 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4524 9850 4505 9826 4497 9865 4507 9871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 218DEG 14KT 4513 9853
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$
DORN

778 
WWUS53 KABR 180745
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
245 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

SDC115-180754-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-120718T0745Z/
SPINK SD-
245 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SPINK COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 245 AM CDT/145 AM MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4524 9850 4505 9826 4497 9865 4507 9871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 218DEG 14KT 4519 9847

$$
DORN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
105 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

THE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE HAS ARRIVED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY STILL PULSE UP INTO STRONG TO
SEVERE RANGE...BUT LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND REALLY ANY
SEMBLANCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RELEGATE CONVECTION TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

A SHALLOW WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON RESPONSIBLE FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS. A SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
WELL...SETTING US UP WITH A DECENT POOL OF MOIST AIR. THE
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF WYOMING IS STILL TOO FAR WEST TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST THIS EVENING...A MORE FAVORABLE STORM
ENVIRONMENT BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE CWA. STORM ENVIRONMENT FEATURES RATHER
LIMITED SHEAR AND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE...SO SUSPECT GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WITH UPPER WAVE CONTINUING
EAST OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD SEE SOME FORM OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE AND WHO WOULD BENEFIT. THOUGH WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION MID
DAY WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INSTABILITY MEANS WE WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SO ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR NEXT 36 HOURS...HOWEVER
WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 C ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES OR INTO THE LOW 100S ARE LIKELY
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH 90S EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH COULD SPARK OFF A FEW STORMS OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
WEAKER. HIGHER 700 MB TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL JET ALSO GETS GOING FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL AID IN ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT. AFTER THAT...PRECIP
CHANCES GET PRETTY SLIM AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING...PRETTY MUCH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA...OVER THE PAST HOUR AND A HALF IN RESPONSE TO BETTER UVVS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOW THAT STORMS ARE ON THE RADAR
SCOPE WILL CARRY CONVECTION MENTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT
EVERY TERMINAL BUT KMBG AS THAT TERMINAL CURRENTLY LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT MAY BE MISSED BY THE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. KPIR IS IN MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000FT AGL...WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR. MVFR TO VFR
BKN/OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...BEFORE GOOD VFR SETS BACK OVER ALL FOUR TERMINALS. EXPECT
IFR VISBIES IN HEAVY RAIN UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1124 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-181630-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
1124 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012 /1024 AM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW WEAK STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL
AND WIND THREAT. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AGAIN AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY AGAIN RISE TO OVER 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

CONNELLY