Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Aberdeen, SD

015 
WWUS53 KABR 122329
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

SDC085-122340-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-120712T2330Z/
LYMAN SD-
629 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LYMAN COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4350 9962 4351 9963 4371 9963 4371 9941
      4369 9942 4368 9945 4367 9945 4366 9937
      4364 9934 4358 9933 4354 9929 4349 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 290DEG 14KT 4349 9940

$$
MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
327 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A COUPLE DECENT LOOKING S/WS ACROSS THE AREA. ONE IS MOVING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HAS PROBABLY PROVIDED FOR
SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE AND JET MAX IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONT
EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF KABR TO JUST NORTHWEST OF K9V9. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE IF ANY CAP LEFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND MIXED LAYER CAPES GREATER
THAN 1500 J/KG. SO AM EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BUT THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IS KINDA HARD TO DETERMINE
BASED ON FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SUSPECT
COVERAGE OF ISOLD/SCT WILL BE SUFFICIENT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH
WIND PROBABLY THE MAIN THREAT FROM PULSE LIKE STORMS WITHIN FAIRLY
WARM ENVIRONMENT.

AFTER TONIGHT THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE COOLER WITHIN
UPPER TROF AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME AVAILABLE
ENERGY SO CANT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. THEN FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
TROF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...ONLY TO HAVE THE RIDGE REDEVELOP TO THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS US IN WESTERLY/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BY MID WEEK...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WITH THE GFS SHOWING A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER SUNDAY
WILL SEE H7 TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF +16C...WITH THE CAP IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL INHIBIT SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION...HOWEVER GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOISTURE ABOVE 10KFT
ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL FLOW. THUS...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF NEGLIGIBLE QPF DUE TO HIGH BASED
ALTOCUMULUS. THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WEAKENS AND CAP TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS AS NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF MAINLY DIABATICALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS READILY APPROACHING 30C
SUGGEST HIGHS RUNNING AROUND THE CENTURY MARK FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF. BEST GUESS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...REPLACED BY A COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR VISBY AND CIGS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED HIT/MISS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM KPIR TO KABR...SHIFTING
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PASSING OUT OF THE KATY AREA BY THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS
TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
426 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-130930-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
426 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012 /326 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH THE THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SD