Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Aberdeen, SD

615 
WWUS53 KABR 291302
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
802 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

SDC041-291330-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120629T1330Z/
DEWEY SD-
702 AM MDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DEWEY
COUNTY UNTIL 730 AM MDT...

AT 658 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
NORTH OF PARADE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF EAGLE BUTTE...MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIDGEVIEW AND WHITE HORSE AROUND 715 AM MDT...
  LAPLANT AROUND 725 AM MDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4521 10149 4526 10149 4546 10070 4499 10051
      4500 10145 4509 10150 4510 10150 4521 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1302Z 259DEG 43KT 4510 10106
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
FOWLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES EVEN MORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS WESTERN SD...MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS A PLUME
OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IS CREEPING NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND ABOUT READY TO ENTER THE DAKOTAS. SFC BOUNDARY ALSO
LAYED UP ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. ALONG THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST
HOUR. THUS FAR THEY HAVE REMAINED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IN UNR CWA BUT EARLY SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CWA ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AND TOMORROW RATHER DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN PINPOINTING EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS. IT DOES APPEAR THERE COULD BE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO TAP INTO AS WELL AS SHEAR. 06Z NAM SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN. EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOWING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROLLING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WELL...BUT ONCE AGAIN A
DIFFICULT FORECAST TO NAIL DOWN. WILL HAVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT ONCE AGAIN...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE A
NOTEWORTHY WAVE AS COMPARED TO TODAY. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND IT WILL PROBABLY HAVE
TO BE THIS SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT WILL HAVE TO GET STORMS GOING.
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST IT REACHES BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A HUGE EFFECT
ON POPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORT PERIODS OF
THE RIDGE GETTING DAMPENED A BIT BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE. CURRENTLY
LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS WILL HAPPEN MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST WAVE...AND LOOKS TO BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE SOME TOWARD
THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...SO HAVE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO
THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION. WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION MENTION
AS THUNDERSTORMS AS DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH EACH BOUNDARY
AND WAVE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORIES AS IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A DECENT CAP IN
PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
CELSIUS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...BUT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR...WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
EASTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
450 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-301000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
450 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 /350 AM MDT FRI JUN 29 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WELL...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TMT