Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Aberdeen, SD

118 
WWUS53 KABR 260442
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1142 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

SDC049-059-069-107-119-260452-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-120626T0500Z/
SULLY SD-POTTER SD-HYDE SD-HAND SD-FAULK SD-
1142 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN FAULK...WEST
CENTRAL HAND...NORTHERN HYDE...SOUTHERN POTTER AND EASTERN SULLY
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4478 9932 4447 9908 4446 9960 4477 9987
      4506 10020 4511 9964
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 271DEG 23KT 4501 9984 4477 9955
          4454 9936

$$
HINTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
727 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AS OF 19Z...A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO AND SE WYOMING. CURRENT PROJECTION IS FOR THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION TO TRACK INTO SW SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING ONCE IT REACHES THIS CWA. WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT
ALONG WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF CIN...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS PRETTY SLIM.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPS AT H7 REACHING THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARM AIR COULD
EASILY PRODUCE SURFACE HIGHS IN THE 90S AND 100S. HOWEVER WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS WARM AIR MAY NOT
FULLY MATERIALIZE. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING HIGHS BELOW 100 FOR TUESDAY WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE COOLER YET. THAT SAID...THE GFS HAS A COLD BIAS
BETWEEN 5 TO 8 DEGREES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FACTORING IN THIS
COLD BIAS PLUS A NUDGE TO THE WARMER NAM CONSENSUS RESULTS IN HIGHS
RANGING IN THE UPPER 90S TO 105 FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. BECAUSE OF THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CONUS UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AS
UPPER TROF PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS PUTS THE REGION ON
THE SOUTH END OF ANY UPPER DYNAMICS...AND TO THE NORTHERN EXTREME
OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD OFF.
GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO A WEAK IMPULSE FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT WEST AND
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND/START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PUSHES
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE REGION.
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER...CAN RULE OUT
A FEW ALTOCUMULUS SHOWERS/STORMS.

WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND WARM AIR ALOFT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. AFT
06Z SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS ARE PSBLE FOR ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME ISOLD -TSRA PSBL FOR THE KPIR AND KATY
TERMINALS AS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SE WINDS AS WELL AFT 12Z
TUESDAY AS SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     TUESDAY FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-
     LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
420 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-260930-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-WALWORTH-DEWEY-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-
JONES-LYMAN-
420 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012 /320 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED
105 DEGREES. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR THOSE
WORKING OR PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037-051-260930-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-EDMUNDS-DAY-
FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-HAND-BUFFALO-
420 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.