Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Aberdeen, SD

334 
WWUS83 KABR 010251
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
951 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...EXTREME FIRE DANGER LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE DANGER
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SDZ267>270-011100-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0006.120401T1700Z-120402T0200Z/
LOWER BAD RIVER-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU-
MISSOURI COTEAU-
951 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 /851 PM MDT SAT MAR 31 2012/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 267...268...269 AND 270...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ SUNDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...IN SOUTH DAKOTA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 267... 
  268...269 AND 270.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DROPPING INTO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE 
  DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...VERY LOW 
  RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL 
  FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

MOHR

553 
WWUS83 KABR 010907
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
407 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012

...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEST OF STATE HIGHWAY 45 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND VERY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SDZ267>270-012100-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0006.120401T1700Z-120402T0200Z/
LOWER BAD RIVER-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU-
MISSOURI COTEAU-
407 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012 /307 AM MDT SUN APR 1 2012/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 267...268...269...AND
270...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN SOUTH DAKOTA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 267...
  268...269...AND 270.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DROPPING AS LOW AS 10 TO 20 PERCENT DURING
  THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...VERY LOW
  RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
  EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

348 
WWUS83 KABR 011718
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1218 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012

...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEST OF STATE HIGHWAY 45 THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTY WIND BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

SDZ267>270-020200-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120402T0200Z/
LOWER BAD RIVER-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU-
MISSOURI COTEAU-
1218 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012 /1118 AM MDT SUN APR 1 2012/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 267...268...269 AND 270...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN SOUTH DAKOTA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 267... 
  268...269 AND 270.

* WINDS...BECOMING WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DROPPING TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE
  AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...VERY LOW 
  RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL 
  FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
TDK

552 
WWUS83 KABR 020206
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
906 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRES...

.CONDITIONS HAVE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION. 

SDZ267>270-020315-
/O.EXP.KABR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120402T0200Z/
LOWER BAD RIVER-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU-
MISSOURI COTEAU-
906 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012 /806 PM MDT SUN APR 1 2012/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 267...268...269 AND 270...

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE INCREASED AND
WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF THIS EVENING. THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
300 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURES AND FIRE DANGER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE.

FOR TNT SYSTEM MOVING ASHORE THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
INDUCE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SFC TROFFING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SERVE TO BOTH KEEP TEMPS
UP...AND WILL ALSO HELP IN THE ADVECTION OF LLM...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. THIS AREA HAD SOME FOG LAST NIGHT AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME FOG/STRATUS TNT ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I29 CORRIDOR. BUT AM NOT SURE ABOUT DENSITY OF SAID FOG SO
WILL JUST GO GENERIC WITH THE MENTION.

FOR SUNDAY...A FEW RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EDGE INTO THE WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIXING IN THE VCNTY
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME 90 DEGREE
READINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WILL ALSO
SEE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THIS
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS...WIND AND RH WILL PROMOTE
EXTREME FIRE DANGER. FURTHER EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
THUS NEGATING SOME OF THE FIRE DANGER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
AHEAD OF/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID THERE IS
STILL SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION APPARENT IN BUFR SOUNDINGS...SO
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE. BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD TURN COOLER...BUT WILL STILL HAVE LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL. THEN FOR MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING
DECENT H7 FRONTOGENESIS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA UNDER DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. NOT A HECK OF A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...A DEEP TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SCHC/CHC FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO WARRANT
A LOW POP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WITH VIRTUALLY NO MU-CAPE...WILL
ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE TEENS WILL PROMOTE EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND EXPLOSIVE FIRE
POTENTIAL OVER AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE WORST
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FROM NOON TO 9 PM. AFTER 9 PM THE MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE THREAT. VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER MAY ALSO OCCUR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
COUNTIES. THE FIRE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY WILL BE DEALT WITH BY LATER
SHIFTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER
     CHEYENNE-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD
FIRE WEATHER...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
514 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-011015-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
514 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 /414 AM MDT SAT MAR 31 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA FOR SUNDAY.

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DORN