Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
343 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MODERATE CONFIDENCE WINTER STORM SCENARIO IS TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS SHOW A DOUBLE BARREL MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN CA NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN NV. THIS STRUCTURE COMPLICATES MATTERS AS 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HANDLE RESOLUTION OF THIS VERY WELL. MEANWHILE
THERE IS A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NE
HIGHLANDS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BREAK OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS AS INCREASINGLY MOIST MID AND UPPER FLOW
SLIDES UP AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL BNDRY. OROGRAPHICS AND UPPER DIV
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW MTS BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF KEY
FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS OPENS THE UPPER LOW AND SHEARS
IT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS SE NM WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
FROM SE CATRON COUNTY ENE ACROSS SOCORRO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...
WHILE THE NAM HAS THE SHEARED WAVE FRONTOGENESIS MUCH FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE I40 CORRIDOR. EITHER WAY QPF WITH BOTH SCENARIOS
IS HEALTHY. SIDED WITH THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH HPC AND THE
00Z ECMWF. WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
DYNAMICS IS ALSO MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACCUMS. COMBO OF LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...STRONG FRONTOGENESIS...AND UPPER FLOW IS
IMPRESSIVE OVER THE SACS AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES WHICH COULD
CREATE SNOW BIG AMOUNTS FOR THAT AREA. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
MATTERS MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY SHEARED WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND FORCE IT SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY THROW A WRENCH INTO THE MIX AND THUS LOWERS
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN PRECIP WILL END. RAISED POPS FOR THE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FOR LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER
SYSTEM. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...OR AROUND 14Z TO 15Z...LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE AREA EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAIN INCLUDING KRTN... KLVS AND POSSIBLY KCAO. OTHERWISE
MVFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THROUGH 00Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTH THEN THE SOUTHEAST IN A RAIN SNOW
MIX THAT WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN.
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR BRIEF BREAK IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL LAST THROUGH MID DAY TODAY
WITH MODEST WARMING WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. VENTILATION TODAY TO BE BEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY GOOD VALUES ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THEN EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ZONES LATER
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. VENTILATION TO DECREASE MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY...WITH GOOD TO
VERY GOOD VENTILATION LIMITED TO THE WEST AND MOSTLY POOR ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES DECREASE AS WELL...REMAINING 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL VALUES ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

MODELS STILL STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT CURRENT GRIDS END THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN STEADILY ON SUNDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP ALL ZONES. PRECIPITATION TO MOVE FIRST INTO THE NORTHWEST
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH.  VENTILATION TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
ALL ZONES.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK WITH EXTENDED
MODELS ALL SHOWING YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE STATE...THOUGH
DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  50  23  48  22 /   5   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  45  15  43  15 /   5   5   0   5
CUBA............................  46  19  44  20 /   5   5   0  10
GALLUP..........................  45  21  46  17 /  10  10   0   0
EL MORRO........................  41  22  41  18 /  10  10   5   0
GRANTS..........................  45  24  43  20 /   5   5   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  42  25  43  19 /  10  20  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  53  27  53  21 /   5  20  20   0
CHAMA...........................  41  16  39  14 /  10  10   5  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  25  42  25 /   5   5   5  20
PECOS...........................  40  26  40  25 /   5   5  20  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  42  14  40  13 /   5   5   5  20
RED RIVER.......................  37  14  35  14 /   5   5  10  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  15  38  14 /   5   5  10  50
TAOS............................  41  18  42  19 /   5   5   5  20
MORA............................  40  21  40  20 /   0   0  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  51  25  50  24 /   0   0  10  10
SANTA FE........................  42  28  43  27 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  47  26  46  24 /   0   0  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  31  46  28 /   0   5  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  49  32  49  30 /   0   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  52  31  51  29 /   0   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  52  31  52  29 /   0   0  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  54  30  52  26 /   0   5  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  51  30  50  29 /   0   0  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  57  32  54  29 /   0  20  20   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  29  44  23 /   5  20  30  40
TIJERAS.........................  49  30  48  25 /   0  20  20  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  29  45  23 /   5  20  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  28  41  23 /   0  30  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  48  30  46  25 /   5  40  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  54  31  48  26 /   0  50  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  45  29  38  24 /   5  70  70  40
CAPULIN.........................  44  22  41  21 /   0   0  10  50
RATON...........................  50  21  47  21 /   0   0  10  40
SPRINGER........................  49  23  46  23 /   0   0  10  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  44  25  43  22 /   0   5  20  40
CLAYTON.........................  48  28  45  25 /   0   5  30  50
ROY.............................  46  28  43  26 /   0  10  20  50
CONCHAS.........................  52  32  46  30 /   5  10  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  52  32  44  30 /   5  20  40  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  33  43  29 /   5  30  50  50
CLOVIS..........................  52  33  42  30 /  10  60  60  40
PORTALES........................  54  35  43  31 /  10  60  60  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  33  45  30 /   5  50  60  40
ROSWELL.........................  55  35  46  32 /   5  60  60  40
PICACHO.........................  49  31  42  28 /   5  70  70  40
ELK.............................  47  30  40  26 /   5  70  70  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-524-526-539-540.

&&

GUYER/05

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>