Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
VERY BUSY DAY WITH A NUMBER OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ONGOING AS
OF THIS WRITING. HIGH POINTS ARE 2 DEGREE CELSIUS COLDER 500 MB
TEMPS TODAY THAN ON SAT AT ABQ...NEARLY OPPOSITE FLOW SFC VS
ALOFT...THOUGH THE S/SE TO N/NW FLOW DOWN LOW IS PRETTY WEAK. ALSO
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF ATMOSPHERE ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF NM. ALL THESE THINGS AND MORE COMING TOGETHER TO GENERATE VERY
HEALTHY T STORMS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS AND A LITTLE EAST OF CENTRAL
MT CHAIN...BUT A FEW IN THE FAR W AS WELL. MAY SEE MCS EVENTUALLY
FOR AREAS BETWEEN WESTERN PORTION OF E PLAINS AND CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...ESPECIALLY INTERSTATE 40 AREA SOUTHWARD. BUT AREA BETWEEN
NW MTS AND 4 CORNERS WILL SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN MOST OTHER
AREAS INTO THE EVE. SOUTHERN BURN SCAR AREAS LOOKING TO BE MORE AT
RISK INTO THE EVE THAN THOSE FARTHER OUT...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
RISK AS IT LOOKS NOW TO WARRANT WATCH. MAY BE A SLIGHT DROP IN AMT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MON OR TUE...BUT WED AND PERHAPS EVEN THU
THE UPPER HIGH MAY SHIFT JUST FAR ENOUGH S TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE
OR TWO TO COME OVER THE TOP AND INTERACT WITH MOIST PLUME TO
PERHAPS BRING EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS
THEN.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A RESULT GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING DOWN. GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK AS WELL.  THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES.

ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INITIALLY...THEN MOVING SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AND BRINGING
WETTING RAINS TO ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGHLANDS. THE BEST CHANCES TODAY
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TOMORROW A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.
SATURDAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE DISSIPATED. A WARM UP
IS FORECAST MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST LATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE
COMING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE
GOOD CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY
WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERATING SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
PATTERN DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY...WHILE THE 00Z GFS BUILDS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE AREA. OUR FORECAST PACKAGE IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...SHOWING A
WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THESE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL BE MONITORED AND FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 3 PM. AFTER
3 PM THROUGH 8 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THEN ROLL OFF THE TERRAIN AND AFFECT THE NEARBY VALLEYS AND PLAINS.
STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH WITH A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
IN PLACE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLVS...KSAF AND KABQ
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE
GENERATING STORMS WITH LOWERED CLOUD DECKS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KROW MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS A LINE OF INSTABILITY AND
CLOUDS MOVES SOUTH. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH
THE STORMS TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  91  62  91 /  10  20  20  10
DULCE...........................  53  84  50  86 /  30  40  20  20
CUBA............................  55  83  54  85 /  50  50  30  40
GALLUP..........................  57  84  57  84 /  20  40  30  40
EL MORRO........................  55  77  53  79 /  40  50  40  60
GRANTS..........................  55  81  54  83 /  40  50  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  57  81  56  81 /  30  50  40  60
GLENWOOD........................  59  84  58  85 /  40  30  30  40
CHAMA...........................  45  78  49  78 /  50  60  40  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  80  58  81 /  50  60  50  30
PECOS...........................  56  76  56  76 /  60  40  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  76  52  77 /  40  50  40  30
RED RIVER.......................  46  72  46  70 /  50  60  50  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  73  44  71 /  50  60  50  50
TAOS............................  51  80  50  81 /  40  50  40  20
MORA............................  53  73  52  72 /  60  60  40  50
ESPANOLA........................  58  86  57  87 /  40  30  40  10
SANTA FE........................  58  80  58  80 /  60  40  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  83  59  84 /  60  40  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  85  63  88 /  50  40  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  88  66  89 /  40  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  90  64  91 /  30  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  89  64  91 /  40  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  89  63  90 /  30  30  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  64  88  64  90 /  40  30  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  65  91  65  94 /  30  30  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  84  57  86 /  50  50  50  30
TIJERAS.........................  60  86  59  88 /  50  40  40  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  82  57  82 /  50  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  81  57  79 /  50  50  50  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  83  60  84 /  40  40  40  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  84  62  86 /  30  40  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  57  77  57  77 /  40  50  30  50
CAPULIN.........................  53  79  54  76 /  50  60  60  40
RATON...........................  54  84  55  84 /  40  60  40  40
SPRINGER........................  56  82  57  82 /  40  60  40  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  80  53  78 /  60  50  40  50
CLAYTON.........................  56  82  58  80 /  20  60  60  20
ROY.............................  55  81  58  79 /  50  50  60  20
CONCHAS.........................  60  86  63  86 /  30  30  40  20
SANTA ROSA......................  63  90  64  89 /  30  30  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  90  64  88 /  20  40  60  20
CLOVIS..........................  62  88  63  85 /  10  20  50  20
PORTALES........................  63  89  65  87 /  10  20  40  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  91  66  88 /  20  20  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  68  92 /  20  10  30  30
PICACHO.........................  60  85  61  85 /  30  30  30  30
ELK.............................  58  80  59  79 /  50  40  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NMZ501>540-201200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
528 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE FOR NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED FOREST AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE STORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED FOREST AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1246 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NMZ518-521-522-191915-
ESTANCIA VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
1246 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BERNALILLO...
SOUTHWESTERN SANTA FE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES
THROUGH 115 PM MDT...

AT 1242 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
COUPLE OF STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SANDIA PARK AND CEDAR
CREST MOVING...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMALL TORNADOES TO DEVELOP.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GOLDEN.

THIS WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 182...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
FUNNEL CLOUDS. LOCALIZED DAMAGE TO LIGHTWEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS OUT
BUILDINGS...CARPORTS AND PATIO COVERS...AS WELL AS TREE BRANCHES AND
STREET SIGNS...IS POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 10623 3512 10608 3506 10640 3522 10646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 246DEG 7KT 3522 10636

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
108 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NMZ512-514-515-529-191945-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS-
108 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM MDT...

AT 106 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EL PORVENIR...OR ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF LAS
VEGAS.  THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MINERAL HILL...SAN GERONIMO...
SAN PABLO AND OJITOS FRIOS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 10524 3549 10557 3575 10553 3576 10535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 048DEG 1KT 3565 10542

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
236 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             1 ESE SAN JOSE          35.39N 105.46W
08/19/2012  E0.88 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201291

JF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NMZ522-523-192200-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
311 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM MDT...

AT 305 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF ENCINO...OR ABOUT 23 MILES EAST
OF ESTANCIA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ENCINO AND DURAN AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 285.

THIS STORM IS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3441 10535 3439 10576 3483 10577 3483 10549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 358DEG 13KT 3470 10565

01