Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
BROAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUING OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NM WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DEVELOPING IN THE EAST THROUGH
03Z THIS EVENING. GUSTY EAST WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER 06Z EARLY
WED MORNING WITH INCREASED WIND SPEEDS REFLECTED IN ABQ TAF.
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AFTER 19Z WED AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED WED
AFTERNOON. GUSTS AND ISOLD EXCURSIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON IN THUNDERSTORMS.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A 0.89 INCH PWAT WHICH IS ROUGHLY NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST...ALTHOUGH KEPZ...KFGZ AND KTWC WERE ALL ABOVE
NORMAL. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND ABOUT 596DAM AT 500MB. AT
18Z...SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE 24HR CHANGE VALUES WERE AN
AVERAGE -5...WHICH INDICATES LESS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
THAN YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON BUILDUPS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FEWER AND FURTHER BETWEEN TODAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW
A NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
MATERIALIZE AND CREEP SOUTH. THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR CENTRAL
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

RECYCLE MODE IS IN FULL EFFECT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IMPORT
FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE...IF NOT THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
GIVEN A DOMINANT AND STUBBORN UPPER HIGH...A GENERAL CONVECTIVE
DOWNTREND SHOULD CONTINUE EACH DAY WITH WETTING RAINS BECOMING
LESS LIKELY AND MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST. ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE UPTREND
ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY (WEAK COLD FRONT) LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THAT
WEAK SURFACE FEATURE AT THIS TIME. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH
180HRS...WHILE FORECASTING A DECREASE IN PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO NEAR
591DAM AT 500MB. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND LIKELY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.

LOOKING BEYOND SEVEN DAYS...THE 12Z GFS SHIFTS THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS HANGING-ON TO THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH 240HRS. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY NOTED...BUT
SOME HOPE FOR A MORE NORMAL MONSOONAL PATTERN TO RESUME SOMETIME
BETWEEN 7-10 DAYS OUT.

11

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL BIG CHANGES. STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO A LITTLE HARD TO GAUGE EAST WIND POTENTIAL BUT EXPECT
SOME BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. NAM MODEL SHOWS SOME
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT GFS IS MUCH DRIER.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY OVER MOST AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE GAP WIND AND CREATE SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WINDS FROM EAST TO
WEST. THIS WILL ADJUST THE STEERING FLOWS SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT.
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT DOESNT LOOK TO BE TOO IMPRESSIVE SO FIGURE
A PSEUDO RECYCLE MOISTURE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION COMING IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HEDGED DEWPOINTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ALTHOUGH MODELS
STILL PICK UP ON SOME PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE STEERING FLOWS WOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER.

MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH WAFFLING AROUND OVER A BROAD FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH
PUTTING IT OVER THE ZUNI MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON FRI. RECYCLING
OF STORMS WOULD CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION FOCUSES
MORE OF ITSELF OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED
LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS THUS RH VALUES SO WENT WITH THAT TREND IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. BOTTOM-LINE...THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN
WOULD DIMINISH AS WOULD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER HIGH BROADLY CENTERED OVER
THE MOGOLLON RIM COUNTRY IN ARIZONA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
NM. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH WOULD ALLOW ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS VARY ON THE
STRENGTH OF IT. GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER REINFORCING WEAK WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF JUST DOESNT CARE
SO MUCH ABOUT PRECIPITATION OVER THE STATE WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF MOISTURE EFFECTS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF.
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WOULD FLATTEN A BIT MORE
AND SAG SOUTH AND EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THE LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY OUT OF THEM. AS THIS HAPPENS STEERING FLOWS WOULD TURN A
BIT MORE WESTERLY OR WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE AS A RESULT. THUS...SUSPECT
RECYCLING WOULD CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EAST DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. TEEN HUMIDITIES EXPECTED IN AREAS
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RECOVERIES SHOULD BE MODERATE TO GOOD MOST AREAS
AND NIGHTS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 AM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

NMZ501>540-081200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
558 AM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO IS LIKELY...WITH SMALL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SPOTTY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE THE MOST ACTIVE WITH A DOWNWARD TREND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1.888.386.7637 TO REPORT HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
748 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

NMZ535-080215-
CURRY COUNTY-
748 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CURRY COUNTY THROUGH 815
PM MDT...

AT 745 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF RANCHVALE...OR ABOUT 13
MILES NORTH OF CLOVIS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...RANCHVALE AND PLEASANT HILL.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 10306 3452 10343 3472 10325 3463 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 029DEG 10KT 3459 10321

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
816 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

NMZ535-536-080300-
CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
816 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROOSEVELT AND CENTRAL
CURRY COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM MDT...

AT 813 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF RANCHVALE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
NORTH OF CLOVIS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLOVIS...RANCHVALE...CANNON
AFB AND PORTAIR.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 10309 3428 10352 3462 10336 3463 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 028DEG 9KT 3453 10325

43