Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A CLUSTER OF HIGH BASED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH NWWD ALONG
THE CONTDVD THROUGH SUNSET. THE SE EXTENT OF THESE CELLS WILL PUSH
INTO THE KABQ/KAEG AREA FROM THE SW WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS. SOME CELLS COULD WORK THEIR WAY NEWD INTO THE KSAF AREA
AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE...KGUP AND POSSIBLY KFMN MAY SEE SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT FROM E OF KELP TODAY TO S OF KDMN THU...AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SAGS SEWD ACROSS NE NM WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
MTNS AND NE/E CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY FROM THE E
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL MTNS WESTWARD TO THE AZ
BORDER.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2012...
CURRENTLY...BROAD RIDGE CENTROID SITTING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
PROVIDING SOLID CAPPING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND
SOME MODEST CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ENDS OF THE
STATE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RULES OVER COLORADO...WITH
WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. CONVECTION
UNDERWAY ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER IN CATRON COUNTY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD EXPANSION TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE
CARDS THROUGH MID EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS TOPPING 0.75 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. STILL WATCHING TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT REMAINING IN THE
FORECAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. PATTERN WILL BE THE DANCE OF THE RIDGE
CENTROID...WITH PANHANDLE POSITION TODAY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE
PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND THEN REDEVELOPING BROADLY OVER NEW MEXICO AGAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CENTROID WILL SHIFT TO THE ARIZONA NEW MEXICO BORDER BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN THAT NEIGHBORHOOD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING NORTH AND
WEST...WITH THE EAST REMAINING DRY. SURFACE LOW SCOOTING WESTWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL NUDGE UP AGAINST THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF NEW MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT TO HELP KEEP CONVECTION GOING A
LITTLE LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

FOR THURSDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN SETS UP A REPEAT FOR
THURSDAY...AS RIDGE CENTROID REMAINS OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND SURFACE LOW PARKS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO
ANCHOR PERSISTENT BIT STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME ENHANCED COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST. LOCAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE 0.8 TO
ONE INCH RANGE. ANOTHER TOASTY DAY OUT EAST...WITH HUNDRED DEGREE
OR BETTER HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WITH SOME RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. LIGHT WINDS...GUSTY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE PROFILES AS
CONVECTION LINGERS WELL INTO THE EVENING.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CENTROID OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH
EXPANSION WESTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO...AND SURFACE LOW NUDGING A FEW
MILES WESTWARD TO THE CLAYTON AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
CONVECTION WILL EXPAND STATEWIDE BUT REMAIN SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE REMAINING
IN THE DRY. CONVECTION LINGERING AGAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING...AND
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE
COLUMN...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS REMAIN IN THE CARDS. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS PEGGING
THE MERCURY AT 100 OR ABOVE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LITTLE CHANGE
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

FOR SATURDAY...RIDGE CENTROID EXPANDING BROADLY OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH COLD FRONT OUT OF COLORADO SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS SETTING UP SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION SUPPLEMENTING
THE STANDARD DAILY ROUNDS OF LOCAL DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST. WIND SHIFTS TO NORTH AND EAST OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME
GUSTY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT HELPED OUT BY ANY CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. COOLER AIR SIFTING IN WILL HELP
CONFINE THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BOX TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...WITH MOST OTHER POINTS ENJOYING A FEW DEGREES RESPITE FROM
THE RUN OF HOT TEMPERATURES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE CENTROID INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND THEN BROADLY SET UP OVER THE ARIZONA BORDER
COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN WILL RECYCLE MOISTURE IN DAILY
CONVECTION OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL WITH GRADUAL DECLINE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE WEST...AND 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
AUGUST NORMALS IN THE EAST.

SHY

.FIRE WEATHER...
FORECAST TRENDS STILL ON TRACK. HIGHLIGHTED BY A MODERATE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO REPLENISH SOME LOST MOISTURE DUE TO RECYCLING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THIS SCENARIO.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY. AS ANTICIPATED THE STEERING FLOWS HAVE
CHANGED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. GENERALLY A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OR WEST TO EAST FLOW FOR THE STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY BY
THIS POINT IS A LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT LOOK FOR
SOME LIGHTNING TO FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE
BETTER WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS HIGHER. STORMS ARE
ALSO MOVING AT A LITTLE QUICKER RATE. LOOKING FOR MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT MODERATE
RECOVERIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. GOOD TO EXCELLENT ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE AND
WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS VIA SOME BOUNDARY SHIFTS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
WETTING RAIN AS WELL. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM.
THE NAM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MAIN
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LIKE THE SANDIA AND MANZANOS AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS BUT EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS THERE. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE. NEAR TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOCATIONS WHILE 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. SOME BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MORE
MODERATE TYPE OF WIND SPEEDS. FAVORING NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS IT CONCERNS WINDS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWER IN
AREAS...EXPECT TEENS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOWLANDS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
EXTEND INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOST LIKELY ENHANCED OR
STRENGTHENED BY THUNDERSTORM COLD POOLING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD. BEHIND
IT WILL BE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THUS HIGHER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL FUEL A BETTER CHANCE OF WETTING STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
OR NEAR TO THE BOUNDARY. NORTHEAST AREAS ARE PEGGED TO BE FAVORED ON
SATURDAY BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TENDS TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS BEHIND
IT QUICKER SO CENTRAL AREAS WOULD BE FAVORED MORE FOR WETTING RAIN.
EITHER WAY...A CHANGE IS AFOOT. SUSPECT THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR HIGHER WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
AND THIS IS PLAYED OUT MOST WITHIN THE GFS FORECAST. THE UPPER HIGH
BY THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE OVER EASTERN NM AND THAT WILL
AFFECT STEERING FLOWS ETC. BASICALLY THE STEERING FLOW WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE GIVING MORE EFFICIENCY TO THE STORMS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THEIR UPPER HIGH RENDITION
THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY OVER SOME PORTION OF NEW
MEXICO AND ARIZONA. IF THE UPPER HIGH WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST THEN THAT WOULD OPEN THE STATE UP TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT
CONCERNS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE FAVORED UNDER THIS SCENARIO BUT HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL BACK DOOR WHICH WOULD THEN HELP OUT THE EASTERN PLAINS
MORE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

NMZ501>540-021200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
533 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY AND LOCALIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT CENTRAL TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH
DAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES...AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE AT 1.888.386.7637 OR VIA
THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ.

52

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
637 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

NMZ508-020115-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
637 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CATRON COUNTY THROUGH 715
PM MDT...

AT 635 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF RED HILL...OR ABOUT 25 MILES
NORTH OF RESERVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN
CATRON COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3414 10879 3389 10878 3392 10905 3410 10906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 228DEG 4KT 3404 10891

33