Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE HAS FILTERED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA.
HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS AS MEASURED BY MORNING DEWPOINTS ARE
FOUND FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS CONTINUED TO RISE THIS MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LO/MID 50S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE HIGH 40S IN THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WAS COMMON.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TEXAS TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH A 590H5 CENTER NEAR SANTA ROSA.
THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WEAK SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY STORM
STEERING CURRENTS SO THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH MOVE LITTLE OR
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE PRINCIPALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN...IN ADDITION TO ANY MESOSCALE
PERTURBATIONS AND/OR BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THE FOCUS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON STRONGEST STORMS IS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SACRAMENTOS...
AND GILA MOUNTAINS. WETTING RAINS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER
SACRAMENTOS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
GILA. INDEED...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WARNINGS WERE ISSUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND RUIDOSO
AND THE LITTLE BEAR AND WHITE FIRE BURN SCARS. CLICK ON THE FIRE
IMPACTS TAB AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ FOR BURN SCAR THUNDERSTORM THREAT
INFORMATION FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL THE BURN SCARS
WE ARE MONITORING ACROSS THE STATE.

WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FORCING IN PLACE MODELS ARE HAVING
TROUBLE WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN. WILL RELY ON NAM12/WRF FOR
SPECIFICS ON CONVECTIVE LOCATIONS BECAUSE OF HIGHER RESOLUTION
TERRAIN...BUT NOT INTENSITIES AND QPF GIVEN MODEL DEWPOINT ERROR
ISSUES. EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW TO FIRE FIRST OVER THE
SACRAMENTO AND SANGRES AND LATER OVER THE GILA.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WIND SHIFTS ALOFT WILL
BRING IN DRIER WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD
TOMORROW.   EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE  TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUST 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE REGION.  MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK EPHEMERAL BACKDOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY AFFECT CLAYTON AREA AS IT
DISSIPATES BEFORE MAKING ANY FURTHER PROGRESS.  A 593H5 RIDGE BUILDS
WEST INTO THE CWA FROM ARIZONA WITH 591H5 CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS CHANGE IN THE PATTERN SHOULD
ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREMENTALLY INCREASE AS IT ADVANCES
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

01

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH OUTFLOW
WINDS COLLIDING OVER THE VALLEYS AND BASINS TO FORM NEW...MAINLY
BRIEF...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL KEEP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY STRONG...GOING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY MIDNIGHT.

FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE ON TAP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST...EXCEPT FOR POOR TO FAIR OVER THE FAR NW. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING RAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...LIMITING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED. ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE TODAY IS THAT WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER REGARDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...FROM THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD TO MOUNT TAYLOR AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GILA. PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED THIS AREA WOULD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR STORMS
BUT AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EVIDENT OVER FAR SERN AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO PROVIDE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE HERE.

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND BECOMES
WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS STRONG STORM/TROUGH
SLIDES EWD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
TO AT LEAST EASTERN ZONES LATE-DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS ALL AREAS BUT FAR NW NM. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF TSTMS THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE...THEREFORE KEPT IN VCTS AT SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS.
ATTEMPTED TO TIME VCTS AT KABQ BASED ON THE TYPICAL TIME HIGHER
TERRAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO COLLIDE IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AND
SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BTWN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  56  93  54  94 /   0   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  86  41  87 /  10   5   5   0
CUBA............................  49  88  48  88 /  20   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  47  88  46  90 /   0   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  46  84  45  87 /  20   5   0   0
GRANTS..........................  50  88  48  90 /  20   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  50  87  48  89 /  20   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  51  94  49  98 /  10  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  46  82  42  81 /  20  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  86  58  89 /  30  10   5   0
PECOS...........................  56  85  55  89 /  40  10   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  83  47  84 /  30  10   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  45  75  42  75 /  40  20   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  77  39  78 /  40  20   0   0
TAOS............................  49  87  45  88 /  30  10   0   0
MORA............................  52  83  52  87 /  40  20   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  51  90  50  94 /  30  10   0   0
SANTA FE........................  56  86  53  88 /  30  10   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  89  54  92 /  30  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  90  61  94 /  30  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  93  64  95 /  30   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  95  59  97 /  30   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  93  62  96 /  30   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  60  94  60  97 /  30  10   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  62  92  62  96 /  30   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  63  95  63  99 /  30  10   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  86  56  88 /  30  10   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  57  89  58  92 /  30  10   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  89  51  92 /  30  10   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  87  55  89 /  40  20   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  54  88  57  92 /  40  10  10   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  90  57  94 /  40  10  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  59  82  57  86 /  40  30  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  54  86  53  88 /  30  20   5   5
RATON...........................  53  90  52  93 /  30  20   0   0
SPRINGER........................  55  90  53  93 /  40  20   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  86  53  89 /  40  20   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  61  95  61  96 /  40  20  10   5
ROY.............................  57  92  59  93 /  40  20  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  97  63 100 /  30  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  64  94  63  99 /  30  20  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  98  65 101 /  30  20  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  63  93  64  99 /  30  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  64  94  64 101 /  30  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  96  66 101 /  30  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  66  98  66 103 /  30  20  20   5
PICACHO.........................  63  90  65  97 /  40  20  20   5
ELK.............................  60  85  64  91 /  40  30  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

NMZ501>540-171200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOISTURE FROM OLD MEXICO...COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS...WILL CREATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE
SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WHICH COULD IMPACT RECENT BURN SCARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1238 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

NMZ526-161915-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
1238 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH
115 PM MDT...

AT 1230 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RUIDOSO DOWNS...OR ABOUT NEAR RUIDOSO...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...RUIDOSO...ALTO AND BONITO
LAKE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 10574 3338 10575 3338 10584 3339 10584
      3352 10580 3338 10546 3329 10551 3330 10573
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 138DEG 3KT 3334 10561

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1258 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     HAIL             RUIDOSO DOWNS           33.33N 105.60W
06/16/2012  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201248

JF

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
347 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

NMZ529-532-533-162215-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
347 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

AT 342 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF ANTON CHICO...OR ABOUT 21 MILES
SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LOS MONTOYAS AND SAN AUGUSTIN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 10510 3532 10489 3519 10519 3532 10530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 216DEG 12KT 3531 10518

CA